NBA games

DAL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
127–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL44183629127
CHI1626222892

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CHI
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 34 27 12 14
Dereck Lively II 20 22 7 3
Daniel Gafford S 23 20 7 1
Kyrie Irving S 27 14 3 1
Jaden Hardy 7 11 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 16 8 0 2
P.J. Washington S 23 7 5 0
Josh Green 23 5 3 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 18 4 1 4
A.J. Lawson 6 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onuralp Bitim 25 17 5 1
DeMar DeRozan S 22 13 2 2
Nikola Vucevic S 26 13 6 2
Coby White S 27 12 2 1
Julian Phillips 28 11 3 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 29 9 8 6
Dalen Terry 7 4 0 2
Alex Caruso S 21 4 5 3
Andre Drummond 16 4 10 1
Jevon Carter 13 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
11%
5 Coby White CHI
11%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
32%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.0 9.5 11.1
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.2 4.8 6.3
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.3 4.9 4.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.3 10.9 3.5
5 Coby White CHI 22.2 4.6 6.0
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.1 4.1 6.2
7 P.J. Washington DAL 11.6 5.3 1.6
8 Alex Caruso CHI 10.2 3.9 3.3
9 Andre Drummond CHI 9.5 9.8 1.0
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.8 2.6 1.7
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.9 6.4 0.9
12 Josh Green DAL 7.8 3.2 1.8
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.5 4.8 0.8
14 Dante Exum DAL 6.7 1.8 2.9
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.5 3.5 1.2
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.8 4.2 1.3
17 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.0 2.5 0.9
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.3 0.9
19 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.7 1.7 0.8
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.5 1.2
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.7 0.8
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 2.0 1.3
23 Markieff Morris DAL 3.1 1.6 0.6
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.0 1.3 0.6
25 Terry Taylor CHI 2.8 1.6 0.7
26 Dwight Powell DAL 2.6 2.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.