NBA games

PHX @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
117–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32313420117
CLE41292120111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home CLE
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 37 8 6
Devin Booker S 38 27 6 7
Bradley Beal S 36 24 5 4
Grayson Allen S 36 14 3 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 29 9 8 0
Drew Eubanks 18 4 6 0
David Roddy 5 2 0 0
Royce O'Neale 29 0 4 4
Bol Bol 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 36 30 2 5
Caris LeVert S 33 17 6 11
Jarrett Allen S 38 15 10 2
Craig Porter Jr. 22 13 6 1
Isaac Okoro S 39 13 4 3
Damian Jones 12 9 5 1
Georges Niang S 25 8 3 1
Sam Merrill 21 3 1 5
Isaiah Mobley 13 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
16%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Caris LeVert CLE
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
6%
9 Georges Niang CLE
6%
10 Isaac Okoro CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
52%
Jumper
29%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.7 7.0 5.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.0 4.0 5.5
3 Bradley Beal PHX 22.6 4.1 5.3
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.4 3.0 6.7
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 19.3 11.1 2.8
6 Grayson Allen PHX 12.7 3.6 2.9
7 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.2 3.7 2.5
8 Caris LeVert CLE 11.7 4.9 6.4
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.3 12.0 4.6
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.2 5.9 3.4
11 Georges Niang CLE 8.7 3.4 1.5
12 Bol Bol PHX 7.9 4.9 0.7
13 Ty Jerome CLE 6.6 2.2 3.4
14 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.1 4.5 1.6
15 Sam Merrill CLE 6.0 2.3 1.4
16 David Roddy PHX 5.1 1.7 1.0
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.0 4.7 0.6
18 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.3 1.8 1.1
19 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.8 2.3 1.1
20 Emoni Bates CLE 3.6 1.7 0.7
21 Ish Wainright PHX 3.4 1.4 0.5
22 Damian Jones CLE 3.4 2.9 0.8
23 Josh Okogie PHX 3.3 1.6 0.7
24 Pete Nance CLE 2.4 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.