NBA games

CHA @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
97–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA2323213097
DET34193328114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DET
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 40 24 7 3
Grant Williams S 32 22 4 2
Brandon Miller S 35 19 5 7
Vasilije Micic S 33 11 5 7
Nick Richards S 36 10 13 2
Davis Bertans 26 7 1 2
Aleksej Pokusevski 11 2 1 2
JT Thor 12 2 2 1
Nick Smith Jr. 15 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 22 6 8
Jalen Duren S 30 20 10 1
Simone Fontecchio S 37 17 8 3
Jaden Ivey S 33 12 3 4
Isaiah Stewart S 34 12 6 0
James Wiseman 18 10 9 1
Marcus Sasser 20 9 2 4
Quentin Grimes 21 6 4 3
Evan Fournier 11 3 1 2
Stanley Umude 4 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Simone Fontecchio · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Simone Fontecchio makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
2 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
3 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Nick Richards CHA
10%
6 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
7 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Tre Mann CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.9 5.2 7.9
2 Miles Bridges CHA 21.8 9.0 3.3
3 Brandon Miller CHA 21.8 5.3 3.4
4 Jaden Ivey DET 16.9 3.1 3.6
5 Simone Fontecchio DET 14.5 3.6 2.1
6 Grant Williams CHA 13.5 4.6 2.9
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.4 11.2 3.4
8 Tre Mann CHA 13.1 5.1 4.2
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.4 6.7 1.6
10 Nick Richards CHA 12.2 9.0 1.1
11 Vasilije Micic CHA 12.0 2.8 5.7
12 Ausar Thompson DET 11.3 6.4 2.1
13 Davis Bertans CHA 8.5 2.4 1.3
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.7 2.4 3.8
15 Evan Fournier DET 6.9 2.4 1.2
16 Quentin Grimes DET 6.7 2.5 1.3
17 James Wiseman DET 6.2 5.5 1.1
18 Stanley Umude DET 6.2 2.7 1.0
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.8 1.4 1.4
20 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.9 2.3 0.9
21 Malachi Flynn DET 4.1 1.6 1.1
22 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.9 2.1 1.0
23 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 3.4 1.6 0.8
24 JT Thor CHA 3.3 2.0 0.7
25 Taj Gibson DET 1.9 1.8 0.6
26 Amari Bailey CHA 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.