NBA games

MIN @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28402417109
LAL32372229120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home LAL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 25 7 7
Naz Reid S 42 25 5 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 39 15 7 5
Jordan McLaughlin 21 12 4 2
Jaden McDaniels S 32 10 6 1
Mike Conley S 29 9 3 6
Luka Garza 10 9 3 1
T.J. Warren 23 4 3 2
Wendell Moore Jr. 1 0 0 0
Daishen Nix 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 38 29 8 9
Anthony Davis S 39 27 25 5
Austin Reaves S 36 19 6 4
Rui Hachimura S 24 15 2 3
D'Angelo Russell S 34 13 3 6
Jaxson Hayes 16 9 5 0
Taurean Prince 24 6 3 1
Max Christie 9 2 2 0
Maxwell Lewis 1 0 0 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 17 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
7 Kyle Anderson MIN
7%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
41%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.3 5.5 9.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.6 5.1 4.3
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.6 12.2 2.9
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.4 4.5 6.4
5 Austin Reaves LAL 17.7 4.5 6.1
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.3 4.1 1.4
7 Naz Reid MIN 15.0 6.4 1.9
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.3 13.2 1.7
9 Mike Conley MIN 11.5 3.4 4.8
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.4 4.3 2.0
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.5 2.8 2.2
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.9 3.8 4.7
13 Taurean Prince LAL 6.9 3.0 1.4
14 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 6.7 1.8 2.4
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.9 3.5 0.6
16 Max Christie LAL 4.9 1.9 1.0
17 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.6 1.4 1.7
18 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 2.5 1.5 0.6
19 Luka Garza MIN 2.3 0.8 0.4
20 Daishen Nix MIN 2.2 0.6 0.4
21 Harry Giles III LAL 2.2 1.4 0.5
22 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.0 0.4
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.8 0.7 0.4
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.8 0.7 0.4
25 Skylar Mays LAL 1.4 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.