NBA games

MEM @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
93–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2419252593
OKC38263822124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home OKC
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
GG Jackson S 38 30 6 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 28 16 2 2
Jake LaRavia S 24 13 1 4
Lamar Stevens 30 9 3 0
Santi Aldama S 27 7 6 3
DeJon Jarreau 28 7 10 5
Wenyen Gabriel 21 6 5 0
Luke Kennard S 23 3 2 2
Trey Jemison III 21 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 27 23 2 6
Cason Wallace 27 22 2 4
Josh Giddey S 19 16 10 4
Luguentz Dort S 23 14 2 0
Chet Holmgren S 22 8 6 2
Isaiah Joe 16 7 1 0
Jalen Williams S 10 7 2 3
Lindy Waters III 9 6 1 0
Kenrich Williams 17 5 8 3
Gordon Hayward 18 5 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
18%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
5 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
6 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
9 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
50%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.4 7.0
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.4 6.2 3.3
3 Jalen Williams OKC 21.9 4.5 4.2
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.7 8.9 2.9
5 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 14.4 6.4 5.9
6 GG Jackson MEM 13.0 4.0 1.3
7 Luke Kennard MEM 12.5 2.4 3.0
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.0 5.6 2.7
9 Josh Giddey OKC 11.4 5.9 4.0
10 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.6 5.3 1.1
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.2 3.9 1.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 3.5 1.6
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.6 4.8 1.5
14 John Konchar MEM 7.1 5.0 2.1
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.6 2.3 1.2
16 Trey Jemison III MEM 6.2 4.9 1.0
17 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.1 2.8 0.9
18 Cason Wallace OKC 5.9 2.8 1.4
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.1 3.5 1.3
20 Gordon Hayward OKC 4.7 2.7 1.3
21 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 3.2 3.1 0.7
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.2 2.0 0.9
23 Mike Muscala OKC 3.1 1.6 0.5
24 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.7 3.5 0.7
25 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.5 1.3 0.5
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.5 1.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.