NBA games

HOU @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
112–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23313226112
SAC30291431104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SAC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Fred VanVleet S 38 22 4 9
Jalen Green S 35 19 2 3
Alperen Sengun S 29 14 6 2
Amen Thompson 20 13 5 0
Dillon Brooks S 30 10 2 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 10 11 2
Cam Whitmore 20 10 4 0
Jock Landale 17 9 5 4
Jeff Green 11 5 2 1
Aaron Holiday 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 40 25 15 8
Malik Monk 27 20 4 5
De'Aaron Fox S 34 18 9 1
Keegan Murray S 32 13 6 0
Davion Mitchell 18 8 2 3
Kevin Huerter S 25 6 3 3
Trey Lyles 20 5 2 0
Harrison Barnes S 21 5 1 0
Alex Len 5 4 1 1
Keon Ellis 18 0 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes 1-foot two point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
17%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.3 5.2 6.6
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.4 10.6 5.5
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.4 14.6 8.6
4 Malik Monk SAC 20.2 4.4 6.0
5 Jalen Green HOU 19.7 4.5 3.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.2 3.7 6.5
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.1 9.1 2.0
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 13.0 4.4 1.4
9 Keegan Murray SAC 12.9 5.1 1.6
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.7 3.2 1.3
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.2 3.5 2.4
12 Amen Thompson HOU 9.7 6.7 1.8
13 Dillon Brooks HOU 9.2 3.8 1.9
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.4 4.1 1.1
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.0 1.5 1.3
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.5 1.3 1.3
17 Jeff Green HOU 4.6 1.8 0.9
18 Chris Duarte SAC 4.0 2.0 0.4
19 Alex Len SAC 3.8 3.2 0.6
20 Keon Ellis SAC 3.6 1.9 1.1
21 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 3.1 0.9
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.4 2.7 0.7
23 Nate Williams HOU 3.4 1.6 0.7
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 2.4 0.9
25 JaVale McGee SAC 2.8 2.4 0.6
26 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.7 1.2 0.4
27 Kessler Edwards SAC 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.