NBA games

IND @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
111–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND18293925111
ORL2426212697

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ORL
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 20 7 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 20 7 8
Obi Toppin 25 17 8 0
T.J. McConnell 27 17 6 6
Aaron Nesmith S 37 16 5 1
Myles Turner S 31 12 8 0
Isaiah Jackson 11 7 3 0
Ben Sheppard 11 2 0 0
Jarace Walker 3 0 0 0
Andrew Nembhard S 25 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 19 5 5
Cole Anthony 26 16 2 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 28 13 15 2
Franz Wagner S 29 13 4 2
Joe Ingles 23 11 2 2
Jonathan Isaac 19 9 7 0
Moritz Wagner 16 9 6 2
Gary Harris S 28 5 1 1
Anthony Black 11 2 2 0
Caleb Houstan S 22 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Franz Wagner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Franz Wagner makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
12%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Gary Harris ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
29%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.1 7.5 5.8
2 Pascal Siakam IND 20.8 6.7 3.6
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.9 5.5 3.9
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 18.5 4.1 9.0
5 Myles Turner IND 17.5 7.4 1.6
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.6 7.0 1.8
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.5 3.1 1.6
8 Cole Anthony ORL 11.2 4.2 3.1
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.8 3.0 3.3
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.7 5.2 1.5
11 T.J. McConnell IND 10.4 3.1 4.4
12 Gary Harris ORL 8.3 2.3 1.7
13 Jalen Smith IND 7.7 4.5 1.0
14 Obi Toppin IND 7.5 3.4 1.1
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.0 5.2 0.8
16 Anthony Black ORL 6.3 2.9 1.3
17 Ben Sheppard IND 5.7 1.9 0.7
18 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.6 3.7 0.7
19 Joe Ingles ORL 5.2 1.7 2.5
20 Jarace Walker IND 4.5 2.8 1.3
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.1 1.9 0.7
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 3.2 2.8 0.9
23 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.7 1.3 0.7
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.6 1.1 0.6
25 Kendall Brown IND 1.2 0.5 0.2
26 James Johnson IND 0.9 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.