NBA games

PHI @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
79–73
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI1522261679
NY1516251773

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home NY
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 33 18 10 3
Buddy Hield 26 16 7 3
Paul Reed 28 13 7 1
Tobias Harris S 38 11 12 2
Kyle Lowry S 31 8 2 3
Cameron Payne S 30 7 1 5
Mo Bamba S 20 4 1 0
KJ Martin 4 2 2 0
Nicolas Batum 31 0 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 32 19 3 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 15 9 3
Bojan Bogdanovic 18 10 1 0
Josh Hart S 43 9 11 2
Precious Achiuwa S 36 8 9 0
Alec Burks 12 5 1 0
Jericho Sims 23 4 6 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 3 10 4
Miles McBride 16 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Hartenstein · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Isaiah Hartenstein makes 2-foot layup (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donte DiVincenzo NY
16%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
3 OG Anunoby NY
9%
4 Josh Hart NY
8%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
8%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
7%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
7%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
6%
10 Mo Bamba PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
29%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.0 3.3 6.6
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.1 4.4 3.9
3 OG Anunoby NY 17.3 4.8 2.0
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.2 4.8 2.3
5 Tobias Harris PHI 15.9 6.8 2.5
6 Josh Hart NY 14.3 9.8 5.1
7 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 13.1 3.2 1.6
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 12.9 10.2 1.9
9 Buddy Hield PHI 12.4 3.2 4.4
10 Paul Reed PHI 10.3 7.7 1.5
11 Miles McBride NY 10.1 2.3 2.4
12 Cameron Payne PHI 9.3 1.9 2.4
13 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.4 7.3 2.4
14 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.2 3.0 4.7
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.2 8.4 1.2
16 Jericho Sims NY 6.1 6.5 1.4
17 Alec Burks NY 6.1 1.8 1.0
18 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.8 1.6 1.9
19 Nicolas Batum PHI 5.7 4.0 1.4
20 KJ Martin PHI 5.6 3.9 1.1
21 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.6 2.8 0.7
22 Shake Milton NY 5.2 2.6 1.3
23 Mo Bamba PHI 3.9 4.0 0.8
24 Terquavion Smith PHI 2.6 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.