NBA games

WSH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
110–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH25233329110
MIA27272826108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIA
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 38 32 9 4
Corey Kispert S 39 22 5 6
Deni Avdija S 35 16 10 2
Tyus Jones S 38 12 4 16
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 11 4 1
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 11 8 2 0
Jordan Poole 23 6 4 6
Eugene Omoruyi 3 2 0 0
Johnny Davis 9 1 2 0
Landry Shamet 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 36 23 3 4
Duncan Robinson S 34 16 2 1
Terry Rozier S 35 16 7 4
Bam Adebayo S 35 16 16 2
Caleb Martin 30 11 7 3
Nikola Jovic S 23 10 6 4
Patty Mills 14 7 2 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 6 7 2
Haywood Highsmith 5 3 0 0
Orlando Robinson 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Terry Rozier · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Terry Rozier makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
4 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
6 Richaun Holmes WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
8 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
25%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.7 7.6 4.1
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 24.6 6.7 7.0
3 Jordan Poole WSH 22.5 4.1 5.0
4 Deni Avdija WSH 20.9 9.6 3.7
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.7 9.7 3.9
6 Terry Rozier MIA 19.8 4.5 6.6
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.7 3.6 4.4
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.1 5.1 2.9
9 Corey Kispert WSH 13.0 3.4 2.8
10 Caleb Martin MIA 12.5 4.4 2.0
11 Tyus Jones WSH 10.2 2.8 9.3
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.6 4.0 1.5
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.6 3.8 2.0
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 3.2 1.0
15 Landry Shamet WSH 5.8 1.9 1.1
16 Richaun Holmes WSH 5.4 3.7 0.7
17 Patty Mills MIA 4.5 1.7 1.0
18 Johnny Davis WSH 3.9 2.2 0.9
19 R.J. Hampton WSH 3.7 1.4 1.3
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.5 2.5 0.8
21 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.4 2.3 0.6
22 Delon Wright MIA 2.9 1.1 1.4
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.3 0.6
24 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.3 1.7 0.4
25 Cole Swider MIA 2.3 0.6 0.6
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.0 1.9 0.5
27 Jules Bernard WSH 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.