NBA games

NO @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
116–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO26272736116
ATL20222338103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ATL
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III 30 28 7 2
Zion Williamson S 36 27 6 7
CJ McCollum S 31 20 4 3
Larry Nance Jr. 29 10 2 3
Naji Marshall 18 7 5 3
Herbert Jones S 30 7 1 2
Brandon Ingram S 32 7 7 10
Jose Alvarado 17 6 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 17 4 9 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 36 25 1 7
Dejounte Murray S 41 23 1 11
Clint Capela S 26 18 14 0
Saddiq Bey S 27 14 5 2
De'Andre Hunter 36 12 6 2
Bruno Fernando 22 6 11 2
Vit Krejci S 22 3 2 3
Garrison Mathews 19 2 0 0
Wesley Matthews 4 0 0 1
Trent Forrest 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
14%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
14%
3 Zion Williamson NO
13%
4 Saddiq Bey ATL
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.1 6.3 8.1
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.2 5.4 6.6
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.6 6.9 6.5
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 17.4 4.0 3.9
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.8 4.0 1.7
6 Trey Murphy III NO 15.9 5.2 2.6
7 CJ McCollum NO 15.7 4.2 3.4
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 14.7 5.7 1.8
9 Herbert Jones NO 12.6 3.9 2.5
10 Clint Capela ATL 10.0 9.7 1.5
11 Jonas Valanciunas NO 9.7 8.5 1.6
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.6 2.5
13 Naji Marshall NO 7.1 3.8 1.8
14 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.4 5.8 1.2
15 Larry Nance Jr. NO 6.3 5.3 1.8
16 Matt Ryan NO 4.4 1.7 0.6
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.1 1.4 0.5
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.0 1.9 0.7
19 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.2 1.9 0.7
20 Vit Krejci ATL 3.0 1.4 1.3
21 Trent Forrest ATL 2.7 1.4 1.6
22 Kobe Bufkin ATL 2.7 1.2 1.1
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 2.6 1.2 0.4
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.1 2.2 0.4
25 Dylan Windler ATL 1.3 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.