NBA games

MIL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
124–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL29303233124
LAC33292332117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAC
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 38 35 7 11
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 34 7 10
Malik Beasley S 39 17 4 1
Bobby Portis 26 11 8 1
Jae Crowder S 19 7 2 1
Brook Lopez S 31 7 6 1
Patrick Beverley 16 5 4 1
Pat Connaughton 26 5 3 2
Danilo Gallinari 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell 31 26 7 2
Ivica Zubac S 26 18 6 1
Terance Mann S 30 16 2 1
Amir Coffey S 30 16 10 4
James Harden S 36 13 5 11
Bones Hyland 21 12 2 5
P.J. Tucker S 26 7 6 2
Brandon Boston 18 5 5 1
Mason Plumlee 7 2 3 3
Daniel Theis 15 2 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Damian Lillard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
25%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Terance Mann LAC
10%
7 Jae Crowder MIL
9%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
9 Danilo Gallinari MIL
0%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
41%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.1 10.2 6.7
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.5 4.9 7.0
3 James Harden LAC 20.6 5.7 7.6
4 Bobby Portis MIL 17.2 7.5 2.2
5 Norman Powell LAC 14.2 3.2 1.7
6 Terance Mann LAC 11.8 4.7 1.9
7 Malik Beasley MIL 10.7 3.1 1.7
8 Brook Lopez MIL 9.9 4.7 1.5
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 9.9 7.8 1.9
10 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.6 3.4 1.6
11 Amir Coffey LAC 6.5 2.4 1.5
12 Daniel Theis LAC 6.2 4.6 1.1
13 Xavier Moon LAC 6.2 2.5 2.4
14 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.0 3.6 1.6
15 Jae Crowder MIL 5.8 4.0 1.3
16 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.4 5.3 1.2
17 AJ Green MIL 4.3 1.4 0.8
18 Bones Hyland LAC 3.9 1.5 1.7
19 Jordan Miller LAC 3.0 1.5 0.7
20 Danilo Gallinari MIL 2.9 1.8 0.9
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.9 1.3 0.6
22 Brandon Boston LAC 2.5 0.9 0.3
23 Moussa Diabate LAC 2.2 1.8 0.4
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.1 1.0 0.9
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 0.8 0.6
26 P.J. Tucker LAC 1.7 1.3 0.4
27 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.