NBA games

TOR @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
TOR163035325118
POR3330292115128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home POR
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 44 29 3 7
Gary Trent Jr. S 42 23 5 3
Chris Boucher 31 16 8 2
Kelly Olynyk S 32 15 6 8
Jordan Nwora 12 10 1 1
Gradey Dick S 39 8 5 2
Ochai Agbaji S 22 7 1 1
Javon Freeman-Liberty 18 6 4 2
Jalen McDaniels 25 4 10 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deandre Ayton S 40 30 19 1
Dalano Banton S 42 25 7 4
Anfernee Simons S 42 23 4 7
Toumani Camara S 32 15 9 4
Matisse Thybulle 32 13 4 4
Scoot Henderson 26 13 1 5
Kris Murray S 25 5 4 3
Duop Reath 13 4 1 0
Rayan Rupert 13 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Immanuel Quickley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Immanuel Quickley makes 2-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 Jerami Grant POR
9%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
8%
5 Scoot Henderson POR
8%
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
8%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Duop Reath POR
6%
9 Dalano Banton POR
6%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
11%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.8 4.1 6.6
2 Jerami Grant POR 23.2 3.8 4.9
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.3 5.3 4.1
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 20.2 5.6 7.4
5 Deandre Ayton POR 18.7 12.8 2.5
6 Scoot Henderson POR 16.6 3.0 4.9
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.9 3.7 1.7
8 Dalano Banton POR 13.5 4.7 2.6
9 Duop Reath POR 11.5 4.6 1.4
10 Toumani Camara POR 11.3 6.1 1.9
11 Gradey Dick TOR 10.8 2.9 1.2
12 Shaedon Sharpe POR 10.4 3.9 1.8
13 Kelly Olynyk TOR 10.1 4.0 3.0
14 Kris Murray POR 9.5 5.0 2.4
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.1 3.2 1.7
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.8 2.6 1.1
17 Chris Boucher TOR 5.6 3.5 0.7
18 Rayan Rupert POR 5.3 2.2 1.1
19 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.9 2.1 0.8
20 Moses Brown POR 3.8 5.0 0.7
21 Jordan Nwora TOR 3.5 2.0 0.7
22 Jontay Porter TOR 2.9 2.2 0.9
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 1.8 0.8 0.4
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.