NBA games

UTAH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
121–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22224433121
DEN38402440142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DEN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 38 29 5 6
Jordan Clarkson 28 22 4 3
John Collins S 33 19 7 1
Collin Sexton S 36 17 1 4
Brice Sensabaugh S 32 16 2 3
Luka Samanic 15 7 5 1
Walker Kessler S 24 6 11 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 9 3 0 0
Johnny Juzang 6 2 0 1
Omer Yurtseven 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 37 3 7
Nikola Jokic S 32 26 6 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 22 19 4 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 13 1 2
Christian Braun 17 13 4 1
Peyton Watson 26 12 5 0
Aaron Gordon S 20 7 2 7
Reggie Jackson 9 6 1 2
Justin Holiday 25 3 2 7
Hunter Tyson 1 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 16-foot jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 John Collins UTAH
10%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
10%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Luka Samanic UTAH
8%
8 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
24%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.8 12.0 10.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.7 4.6 7.1
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.6 3.4 6.2
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.4 7.2 2.6
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.2 7.1 4.1
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 16.9 3.9 5.9
7 Keyonte George UTAH 16.3 2.9 5.3
8 John Collins UTAH 15.6 10.4 2.1
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.9 3.0 2.3
10 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.2 7.7 1.1
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 6.9 2.0 3.1
12 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 6.7 2.6 2.2
13 Christian Braun DEN 6.7 4.3 1.4
14 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.6 2.4 2.5
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.6 3.5 1.3
16 Justin Holiday DEN 6.3 2.0 1.4
17 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 4.8 1.8 0.9
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 4.1 3.2 0.6
19 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.2 1.7 0.6
20 Johnny Juzang UTAH 3.2 1.4 0.9
21 Julian Strawther DEN 3.0 0.9 0.8
22 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.7 2.5 0.5
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 2.8 0.4
24 Jay Huff DEN 1.9 0.8 0.5
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.7 0.8 0.4
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.7 0.5 0.6
27 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.2 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.