NBA games

SA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
126–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA32303430126
GS27163634113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home GS
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson 32 22 11 1
Malaki Branham S 29 20 3 2
Jeremy Sochan S 24 20 5 1
Dominick Barlow 30 19 8 4
Julian Champagnie S 34 17 7 5
Zach Collins S 22 9 2 0
Devonte' Graham 11 8 2 0
Tre Jones S 31 7 5 11
Blake Wesley 20 4 5 9
Sandro Mamukelashvili 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 25 27 2 1
Jonathan Kuminga S 30 26 3 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 24 11 6 0
Andrew Wiggins 26 11 6 1
Chris Paul S 29 10 4 9
Moses Moody 26 9 5 0
Brandin Podziemski S 31 8 6 7
Draymond Green S 28 7 5 4
Lester Quinones 9 2 1 0
Dario Saric 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Paul · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Chris Paul makes 8-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jonathan Kuminga GS
20%
2 Devin Vassell SA
13%
3 Draymond Green GS
10%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
5 Zach Collins SA
10%
6 Tre Jones SA
10%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
8 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
25%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Vassell SA 23.2 5.1 6.2
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.9 6.3 3.4
3 Klay Thompson GS 17.6 3.6 2.4
4 Malaki Branham SA 14.2 2.7 2.4
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.6 4.1 2.8
6 Keldon Johnson SA 13.4 3.6 2.8
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.7 7.1 2.2
8 Chris Paul GS 11.9 3.5 5.8
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.9 5.5 4.6
10 Draymond Green GS 11.5 8.3 5.5
11 Tre Jones SA 10.4 4.1 6.1
12 Zach Collins SA 10.1 4.9 2.8
13 Moses Moody GS 8.4 3.9 1.0
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.9 4.8 1.1
15 Dominick Barlow SA 6.0 4.7 1.1
16 Julian Champagnie SA 5.5 3.0 1.4
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.5 1.8 2.3
18 Lester Quinones GS 5.4 2.3 1.1
19 Gui Santos GS 4.9 3.0 1.0
20 Dario Saric GS 3.9 2.2 1.9
21 Kevon Looney GS 3.3 3.2 1.2
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 1.8 0.6
23 Jerome Robinson GS 2.9 1.3 0.7
24 Devonte' Graham SA 2.5 1.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.