NBA games

BOS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
117–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS31312530117
PHX26242829107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHX
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 29 10 7
Jaylen Brown S 34 27 3 3
Jrue Holiday S 36 15 3 6
Luke Kornet 20 14 6 0
Payton Pritchard 23 10 2 1
Derrick White S 35 10 5 9
Al Horford S 32 9 12 3
Sam Hauser 18 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 45 10 6
Bradley Beal S 38 25 1 4
Bol Bol 10 13 4 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 11 11 4
Grayson Allen S 39 7 5 2
Royce O'Neale S 37 3 5 2
David Roddy 6 2 1 0
Saben Lee 4 1 1 1
Drew Eubanks 11 0 1 0
Eric Gordon 29 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
13%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
12%
5 Derrick White BOS
10%
6 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
29%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.9 6.5 4.8
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.8 6.5 3.9
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.4 7.4 5.5
4 Bradley Beal PHX 22.1 4.1 5.5
5 Derrick White BOS 13.7 4.5 5.3
6 Grayson Allen PHX 13.6 3.5 3.1
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.9 4.1 5.3
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.6 10.6 4.3
9 Eric Gordon PHX 10.6 2.2 1.9
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.5 5.8 3.6
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.0 2.9 1.7
12 Al Horford BOS 7.9 5.4 1.4
13 Bol Bol PHX 7.0 4.4 0.7
14 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.3 4.5 1.6
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.8 3.0 0.8
16 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.8 3.8 1.3
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.8 4.2 0.7
18 David Roddy PHX 4.8 1.7 1.1
19 Saben Lee PHX 3.8 2.0 1.5
20 Jaden Springer BOS 3.6 1.9 0.9
21 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.5 1.0 0.7
22 Luke Kornet BOS 3.4 3.1 0.5
23 Ish Wainright PHX 3.3 1.4 0.5
24 JD Davison BOS 3.0 1.6 1.5
25 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.7 1.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.