NBA games

DAL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
142–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35343538142
DET33322336124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DET
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 39 10 10
Kyrie Irving S 30 21 3 5
Daniel Gafford S 24 17 7 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 18 17 1 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 12 1 1
Jaden Hardy 4 8 1 1
Josh Green 27 8 1 2
P.J. Washington S 29 7 2 1
Markieff Morris 3 6 0 0
Dwight Powell 12 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 33 9 10
Simone Fontecchio 32 27 4 2
James Wiseman 30 17 12 4
Jaden Ivey S 36 17 6 4
Marcus Sasser 19 10 4 1
Jalen Duren S 16 6 8 3
Isaiah Stewart S 34 5 4 0
Ausar Thompson S 11 4 5 0
Stanley Umude 14 3 2 0
Malachi Flynn 2 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (P.J. Washington assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 Jalen Duren DET
11%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
17%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 31.5 9.7 10.9
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.2 5.4 3.8
3 Cade Cunningham DET 24.5 4.8 8.0
4 Jaden Ivey DET 16.2 2.7 4.0
5 Jalen Duren DET 13.7 10.6 3.3
6 Simone Fontecchio DET 13.2 3.4 2.2
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.1 6.7 1.8
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.9 6.0 2.4
9 P.J. Washington DAL 12.8 5.6 1.7
10 Josh Green DAL 8.5 3.6 1.9
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.4 2.9 1.7
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.1 7.4 1.0
13 Evan Fournier DET 8.0 2.5 1.5
14 Dante Exum DAL 7.8 2.0 3.0
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.5 2.0 4.6
16 Quentin Grimes DET 7.3 2.8 1.4
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.4 4.3 1.5
18 James Wiseman DET 6.3 5.0 1.0
19 Stanley Umude DET 5.3 2.0 0.9
20 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.1 2.7 0.8
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 4.6 1.2 0.9
22 Malachi Flynn DET 4.3 1.4 1.1
23 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.0 1.6 0.7
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.8 1.2 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 2.7 0.7
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 1.4 0.5
27 Taj Gibson DET 2.3 2.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.