NBA games

CHI @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29282817102
LAC23233729112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home LAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 42 24 8 10
Nikola Vucevic S 35 22 11 2
Coby White S 41 19 5 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 13 2 4
Alex Caruso S 36 9 1 6
Onuralp Bitim 10 6 1 0
Torrey Craig 13 6 3 0
Andre Drummond 12 3 7 0
Dalen Terry 1 0 0 0
Jevon Carter 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 40 22 5 9
Kawhi Leonard S 38 19 9 4
Norman Powell 27 18 4 0
Ivica Zubac S 25 16 9 2
James Harden S 34 14 11 10
Bones Hyland 13 10 2 1
Terance Mann S 25 7 1 1
Daniel Theis 21 6 3 2
Amir Coffey 15 0 1 0
Jordan Miller 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Caruso · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Alex Caruso makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Coby White CHI
11%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
6 James Harden LAC
10%
7 Paul George LAC
10%
8 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
21%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.5 4.6 5.9
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.9 6.0 4.2
3 James Harden LAC 21.8 5.0 7.5
4 Coby White CHI 21.7 4.6 6.1
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.5 10.8 3.3
6 Paul George LAC 21.0 5.0 3.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.1 3.9 6.3
8 Norman Powell LAC 12.6 3.2 1.7
9 Terance Mann LAC 11.8 4.7 1.9
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.2 8.0 1.8
11 Alex Caruso CHI 9.7 3.9 3.1
12 Andre Drummond CHI 9.2 9.3 1.0
13 Amir Coffey LAC 6.8 2.4 1.6
14 Torrey Craig CHI 6.3 3.6 1.3
15 Xavier Moon LAC 6.3 2.6 2.4
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.1 4.7 1.1
17 Mason Plumlee LAC 5.9 5.6 1.3
18 Jevon Carter CHI 4.9 1.5 1.2
19 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.4 1.7 0.7
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.7 0.8
21 Bones Hyland LAC 3.3 1.4 1.7
22 Dalen Terry CHI 2.5 1.4 1.1
23 Brandon Boston LAC 2.5 0.9 0.4
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.0 1.1 0.4
25 Jordan Miller LAC 1.9 0.8 0.4
26 P.J. Tucker LAC 1.7 1.3 0.5
27 Kobe Brown LAC 1.4 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.