NBA games

HOU @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
123–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28273731123
POR31322420107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home POR
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 34 27 3 5
Alperen Sengun S 32 19 9 6
Fred VanVleet S 34 18 1 10
Amen Thompson 26 16 8 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 39 15 9 4
Cam Whitmore 24 13 8 0
Aaron Holiday 15 6 1 1
Jock Landale 13 5 3 3
Dillon Brooks S 21 4 3 1
Nate Williams 1 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton S 38 30 8 5
Anfernee Simons S 34 23 3 3
Duop Reath S 32 16 6 3
Kris Murray S 33 12 11 7
Toumani Camara S 30 9 7 0
Ashton Hagans 18 6 4 2
Matisse Thybulle 19 5 3 0
Moses Brown 10 4 5 0
Rayan Rupert 22 2 2 2
Justin Minaya 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
17%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
15%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
6 Dalano Banton POR
8%
7 Toumani Camara POR
7%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 Duop Reath POR
7%
10 Kris Murray POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
25%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.8 4.1 6.4
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.4 10.4 5.2
3 Jalen Green HOU 18.8 4.6 3.6
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.1 3.9 5.9
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 8.6 1.7
6 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.3 3.9 1.4
7 Dalano Banton POR 11.1 4.0 2.2
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.1 4.0 1.8
9 Toumani Camara POR 10.1 5.5 1.5
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR 10.1 3.8 1.6
11 Amen Thompson HOU 9.9 7.1 1.9
12 Duop Reath POR 9.8 4.1 1.0
13 Kris Murray POR 8.1 4.2 1.8
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.8 3.0 2.0
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.6 1.2 1.4
16 Ashton Hagans POR 4.9 2.5 2.6
17 Jeff Green HOU 4.8 2.0 1.1
18 Rayan Rupert POR 4.6 2.2 1.0
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 2.5 1.0
20 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.3 2.7 0.7
21 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.9 1.4 0.5
22 Jock Landale HOU 2.8 2.9 0.7
23 Moses Brown POR 2.5 4.1 0.4
24 Nate Williams HOU 2.1 0.8 0.4
25 Justin Minaya POR 2.0 0.9 0.5
26 Ibou Badji POR 1.6 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.