NBA games

MIL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
122–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL30332732122
LAL27402927123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 34 14 12
Damian Lillard S 38 28 5 12
Pat Connaughton 31 17 6 1
Malik Beasley S 34 14 4 2
Bobby Portis 26 14 8 0
Brook Lopez S 32 11 3 1
Jae Crowder S 21 4 3 0
Danilo Gallinari 3 0 0 0
Patrick Beverley 16 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 38 44 6 9
Anthony Davis S 41 22 13 5
Austin Reaves S 37 18 5 7
Rui Hachimura S 38 12 5 2
Jaxson Hayes 17 8 1 0
Taurean Prince 16 8 6 1
Cam Reddish 15 6 0 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 34 5 2 3
Max Christie 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
25%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
13%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
9 Jae Crowder MIL
6%
10 Danilo Gallinari MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
56%
Jumper
9%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.0 11.2 6.6
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 5.0 7.0
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.2 12.2 3.2
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 19.1 4.1 6.5
5 Bobby Portis MIL 17.9 7.7 2.6
6 Austin Reaves LAL 17.6 4.8 6.3
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.7 4.2 1.5
8 Malik Beasley MIL 10.2 3.3 1.7
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.0 4.8 1.8
10 Taurean Prince LAL 7.2 3.0 1.5
11 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 7.1 1.7 3.2
12 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.7 3.5 1.9
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.4 3.7 2.0
14 Jae Crowder MIL 5.7 3.8 1.4
15 Max Christie LAL 5.4 2.1 1.3
16 AJ Green MIL 5.0 1.7 0.9
17 Cam Reddish LAL 4.5 1.7 0.9
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.2 3.9 0.7
19 Danilo Gallinari MIL 3.9 1.9 1.1
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.4 1.6 0.7
21 Harry Giles III LAL 2.9 1.7 0.7
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.7 1.3 1.0
23 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.3 0.7
24 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.4 1.0 0.5
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.3 1.0 0.5
26 Skylar Mays LAL 1.6 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.