NBA games

MIA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
100–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29281627100
OKC27203030107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home OKC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 25 3 3
Jimmy Butler III S 37 20 10 8
Terry Rozier S 32 14 5 4
Patty Mills 16 13 2 0
Duncan Robinson S 28 9 2 1
Caleb Martin 30 7 3 0
Nikola Jovic S 30 7 8 3
Bam Adebayo S 31 5 10 4
Haywood Highsmith 5 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 37 5 6
Jalen Williams S 30 15 5 4
Josh Giddey S 23 11 9 6
Isaiah Joe 19 10 4 1
Luguentz Dort S 33 9 7 2
Aaron Wiggins 19 7 3 1
Chet Holmgren S 29 7 3 3
Jaylin Williams 17 5 7 0
Gordon Hayward 18 3 2 4
Cason Wallace 14 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:03 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 2-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
9 Nikola Jovic MIA
6%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
36%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 5.9 6.2
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 24.1 6.6 6.5
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.5 4.5 4.8
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.9 8.8 4.4
5 Terry Rozier MIA 19.4 4.6 6.3
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.1 8.8 2.9
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.4 3.5 4.1
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.2 4.7 2.4
9 Caleb Martin MIA 12.0 4.6 1.9
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.7 3.6 1.5
11 Josh Giddey OKC 10.6 5.1 3.6
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.3 2.8 1.5
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.0 2.2 1.1
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.9 2.4 0.9
15 Cason Wallace OKC 5.7 2.6 1.2
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.6 2.9 0.9
17 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.2 3.2 1.4
18 Jamal Cain MIA 4.1 1.9 0.5
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.7 2.2 1.0
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 3.6 3.0 1.0
21 Mike Muscala OKC 3.4 1.8 0.6
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.2 0.7
23 Bismack Biyombo OKC 2.9 3.6 0.9
24 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Patty Mills MIA 2.7 1.0 0.7
26 Delon Wright MIA 2.6 1.1 1.2
27 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.4 1.1 0.8
28 Orlando Robinson MIA 1.9 1.7 0.6
29 Cole Swider MIA 1.8 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.