NBA games

ATL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
99–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL2026341999
MEM3115262092

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MEM
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 40 41 7 6
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 35 16 6 3
Clint Capela S 27 15 11 3
De'Andre Hunter 29 12 2 2
Garrison Mathews 16 6 3 0
Saddiq Bey S 37 3 9 2
Vit Krejci S 22 3 1 5
Trent Forrest 8 2 1 0
Bruno Fernando 21 1 7 0
Wesley Matthews 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 35 21 9 3
Vince Williams Jr. S 37 14 5 6
Jake LaRavia 26 14 3 3
Santi Aldama S 32 13 5 0
Lamar Stevens 29 13 5 0
Jordan Goodwin S 24 5 0 4
John Konchar S 29 5 5 3
Trey Jemison III 16 5 2 0
Wenyen Gabriel 13 2 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 3"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
3 Saddiq Bey ATL
9%
4 Clint Capela ATL
9%
5 Ziaire Williams MEM
8%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
7 Trey Jemison III MEM
8%
8 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
9 Jordan Goodwin MEM
7%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
34%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.5 6.0 3.5
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.6 6.3 7.8
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.7 4.0 1.7
4 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.5 4.1 3.8
5 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.5 5.6 1.8
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 14.5 6.2 6.4
7 GG Jackson MEM 13.4 4.1 1.4
8 Luke Kennard MEM 12.8 2.5 3.1
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.1 5.6 3.4
10 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.8 5.4 1.2
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.6 4.0 1.9
12 Clint Capela ATL 9.8 9.7 1.4
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.7 4.3 1.4
14 John Konchar MEM 7.3 5.6 2.5
15 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.2 5.6 1.1
16 Jordan Goodwin MEM 5.2 2.6 2.1
17 Trey Jemison III MEM 5.2 4.5 0.8
18 Matt Hurt MEM 4.5 2.2 0.8
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.7 0.6
20 Wenyen Gabriel MEM 3.3 2.8 0.6
21 Trent Forrest ATL 2.9 1.2 1.9
22 Kobe Bufkin ATL 2.9 1.3 1.1
23 Vit Krejci ATL 2.7 1.1 0.6
24 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.2 1.4 0.4
25 Dylan Windler ATL 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.