NBA games

ORL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
74–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2316152074
NY3124251898

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home NY
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 23 9 2
Franz Wagner S 34 13 4 0
Jonathan Isaac 16 11 6 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 25 7 9 2
Gary Harris S 24 5 1 1
Cole Anthony 25 4 1 5
Moritz Wagner 12 4 1 1
Markelle Fultz 9 2 1 0
Chuma Okeke 3 2 1 0
Caleb Houstan 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 29 26 3 2
Josh Hart S 42 19 7 4
Precious Achiuwa S 39 15 14 4
Miles McBride 19 14 3 1
Donte DiVincenzo S 42 11 4 6
Bojan Bogdanovic 12 6 0 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 5 6 2
Jericho Sims 28 2 6 1
Alec Burks 5 0 0 0
Shake Milton 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Hart · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:46 Q1
"Josh Hart makes 22-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Josh Hart NY
9%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
6 Precious Achiuwa NY
8%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Goga Bitadze ORL
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
40%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.3 6.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.2 6.7 6.0
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 18.6 4.1 3.6
4 Franz Wagner ORL 18.2 5.4 3.7
5 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 13.5 3.5 1.7
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.7 6.2 1.7
7 Josh Hart NY 12.7 9.4 5.3
8 Precious Achiuwa NY 12.3 8.9 1.6
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 10.6 5.4 1.3
10 Cole Anthony ORL 9.9 3.9 2.4
11 Miles McBride NY 9.1 1.9 2.3
12 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.4 7.5 2.9
13 Markelle Fultz ORL 7.9 3.8 2.1
14 Gary Harris ORL 7.6 2.0 1.5
15 Alec Burks NY 7.3 1.7 1.1
16 Anthony Black ORL 5.6 2.4 1.3
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.5 4.8 0.8
18 Jericho Sims NY 5.4 5.6 1.2
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.6 1.5 2.4
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.7 1.6 0.6
21 Shake Milton NY 3.2 1.8 1.0
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.9 2.4 0.9
23 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.9 0.7 0.4
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 1.9 1.0 0.6
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.8 0.3
26 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.