NBA games

MIN @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MIN232730177104
CLE2529251816113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CLE
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 32 34 5 2
Anthony Edwards S 42 19 5 3
Jaden McDaniels S 40 13 5 2
Kyle Anderson S 35 10 3 5
Mike Conley S 32 9 3 5
Rudy Gobert S 37 7 17 2
T.J. Warren 11 6 4 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 4 2 2
Jordan McLaughlin 11 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 44 34 4 8
Jarrett Allen S 46 33 18 3
Georges Niang S 36 16 6 4
Caris LeVert 34 15 5 8
Isaac Okoro S 43 9 6 2
Sam Merrill 19 6 1 0
Dean Wade S 33 0 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 3 0 0 0
Damian Jones 7 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot driving dunk (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Rudy Gobert MIN
14%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Isaac Okoro CLE
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
7 Kyle Anderson MIN
8%
8 Georges Niang CLE
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Dean Wade CLE
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.8 5.1 4.2
2 Darius Garland CLE 18.9 2.8 7.1
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.0 10.8 2.6
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.1 11.5 1.5
5 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.6 3.1 2.5
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.3 6.2 1.5
7 Caris LeVert CLE 11.7 4.8 5.8
8 Mike Conley MIN 10.6 3.5 4.5
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.8 4.1 1.8
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.3 2.9 2.1
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.4 3.8 4.2
12 Georges Niang CLE 6.8 2.6 1.3
13 Ty Jerome CLE 6.4 2.1 3.3
14 Sam Merrill CLE 5.3 2.0 1.1
15 Dean Wade CLE 5.0 3.0 0.7
16 Isaiah Mobley CLE 3.4 2.0 1.1
17 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.1 1.7 0.7
18 Damian Jones CLE 3.0 2.2 0.7
19 Emoni Bates CLE 3.0 1.4 0.7
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.7 0.9 1.0
21 Luka Garza MIN 1.8 0.7 0.3
22 Daishen Nix MIN 1.7 0.5 0.3
23 Josh Minott MIN 1.5 0.8 0.3
24 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.1 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.