NBA games

CHA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
100–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA16293124100
WSH24242044112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home WSH
7% 93%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 41 32 12 4
Brandon Miller S 30 21 6 0
Vasilije Micic S 32 14 3 3
Davis Bertans 32 11 6 3
Nick Richards S 30 10 13 0
JT Thor 11 6 2 1
Grant Williams S 38 5 4 5
Bryce McGowens 10 1 1 0
Nick Smith Jr. 16 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 40 28 8 9
Deni Avdija S 35 18 14 2
Jordan Poole 34 15 5 7
Richaun Holmes S 36 14 11 1
Corey Kispert 30 13 4 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 27 11 4 0
Tyus Jones S 22 7 4 4
Eugene Omoruyi 6 4 2 0
Anthony Gill 2 2 0 0
Johnny Davis 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes driving layup (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Deni Avdija WSH
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Nick Richards CHA
11%
5 Corey Kispert WSH
10%
6 Brandon Miller CHA
9%
7 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Tre Mann CHA
8%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
51%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.1 7.2 4.0
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.0 4.1 4.6
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.5 9.4 3.8
4 Brandon Miller CHA 20.4 5.1 3.4
5 Deni Avdija WSH 20.0 9.7 3.9
6 Grant Williams CHA 15.0 5.3 2.9
7 Tre Mann CHA 13.4 5.6 4.6
8 Nick Richards CHA 12.9 9.8 1.3
9 Corey Kispert WSH 12.4 3.4 2.6
10 Tyus Jones WSH 11.1 2.7 9.2
11 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.5 2.8 5.3
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.6 4.0 1.6
13 Davis Bertans CHA 7.7 2.0 0.9
14 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.3 2.8 1.0
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.2 1.2 1.2
16 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.7 3.0 0.6
17 Johnny Davis WSH 4.1 2.1 0.9
18 R.J. Hampton WSH 3.9 1.5 1.4
19 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 3.6 2.4 0.9
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.5 1.8 0.4
21 JT Thor CHA 2.3 1.8 0.4
22 Marques Bolden CHA 2.1 2.6 0.4
23 Jules Bernard WSH 2.1 0.9 0.5
24 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.