NBA games

NO @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
103–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO36272119103
PHI1519273495

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHI
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 35 23 12 4
Naji Marshall 18 19 4 1
Brandon Ingram S 35 17 7 5
Trey Murphy III 28 10 3 3
CJ McCollum S 27 10 4 1
Jose Alvarado 21 7 1 2
Larry Nance Jr. 27 7 4 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 19 6 10 2
Herbert Jones S 31 4 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 39 21 10 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 20 7 2
Paul Reed 27 17 11 2
Cameron Payne 23 13 1 4
Buddy Hield S 25 8 2 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 19 6 0 1
Kyle Lowry S 31 6 3 7
Mo Bamba S 18 2 6 0
Ricky Council IV 6 2 0 0
KJ Martin 17 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 10:58 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
5 Herbert Jones NO
9%
6 Paul Reed PHI
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Cameron Payne PHI
8%
9 Nicolas Batum PHI
7%
10 Buddy Hield PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
44%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 23.4 6.8 6.5
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.0 5.5 6.4
3 Trey Murphy III NO 17.4 5.5 2.4
4 CJ McCollum NO 16.8 4.5 3.6
5 Tobias Harris PHI 16.8 6.5 2.9
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.5 4.9 2.4
7 Buddy Hield PHI 14.8 3.4 5.1
8 Herbert Jones NO 14.2 4.1 2.6
9 Jonas Valanciunas NO 11.2 9.1 1.6
10 Paul Reed PHI 10.6 7.6 1.5
11 Cameron Payne PHI 9.5 1.9 2.6
12 Kyle Lowry PHI 8.0 3.1 4.7
13 Jose Alvarado NO 7.7 2.9 2.5
14 KJ Martin PHI 6.8 4.3 1.3
15 Naji Marshall NO 6.6 3.7 2.2
16 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.5 4.2 1.6
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 6.0 1.9 2.3
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.0 2.9 0.8
19 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.8 5.1 1.7
20 Matt Ryan NO 5.5 2.1 0.8
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.1 1.8 0.7
22 Mo Bamba PHI 4.2 4.0 1.0
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.5 1.7 0.6
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.9 2.7 0.6
25 Terquavion Smith PHI 2.6 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.