NBA games

SA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
129–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31283634129
SAC30412931131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home SAC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 39 30 5 9
Malaki Branham 26 23 1 4
Zach Collins S 30 22 7 4
Keldon Johnson 28 22 3 4
Blake Wesley 17 11 1 3
Jeremy Sochan S 36 9 8 2
Julian Champagnie S 17 4 1 1
Dominick Barlow 13 4 1 0
Tre Jones S 24 2 5 12
Cedi Osman 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 33 5 5
Domantas Sabonis S 38 31 17 9
Malik Monk 30 18 7 9
Harrison Barnes S 30 17 1 2
Keon Ellis 17 11 3 0
Davion Mitchell 14 9 0 0
Trey Lyles 18 9 5 2
Keegan Murray S 31 3 3 0
Alex Len 9 0 3 2
Kevin Huerter S 16 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Zach Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
3 Devin Vassell SA
13%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
12%
5 Kevin Huerter SAC
11%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
8 Tre Jones SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
6%
10 Keldon Johnson SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
15%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 28.2 4.8 7.7
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.3 14.6 9.5
3 Devin Vassell SA 22.4 4.9 5.7
4 Malik Monk SAC 20.2 4.3 5.7
5 Keegan Murray SAC 13.9 5.7 1.8
6 Keldon Johnson SA 13.5 3.5 2.6
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.9 6.4 2.3
8 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.4 3.1 1.2
9 Malaki Branham SA 11.9 2.5 2.2
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.0 3.5 2.3
11 Tre Jones SA 10.3 3.6 5.6
12 Zach Collins SA 8.6 4.1 2.7
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.8 1.6 1.5
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.7 4.3 1.0
15 Julian Champagnie SA 5.5 3.1 1.6
16 Dominick Barlow SA 5.4 4.5 1.3
17 Blake Wesley SA 5.4 1.5 2.4
18 Cedi Osman SA 5.0 2.2 1.8
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.5 2.2 0.7
20 Alex Len SAC 3.8 3.0 0.7
21 Keon Ellis SAC 3.3 1.8 1.2
22 JaVale McGee SAC 2.9 2.4 0.4
23 Devonte' Graham SA 2.7 1.0 0.8
24 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.6 1.7 0.7
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.0 0.9 0.4
26 Colby Jones SAC 2.0 1.3 0.6
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 1.8 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.