NBA games

CHI @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
125–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25383626125
GS31283033122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home GS
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 35 33 11 5
DeMar DeRozan S 39 33 8 4
Coby White S 37 20 4 7
Ayo Dosunmu S 38 14 3 6
Jevon Carter 21 10 1 2
Onuralp Bitim 17 6 0 1
Alex Caruso S 22 5 5 2
Julian Phillips 4 3 0 0
Andre Drummond 13 1 7 0
Torrey Craig 14 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson 28 25 1 2
Jonathan Kuminga S 33 19 10 2
Chris Paul 24 15 4 5
Stephen Curry S 29 15 3 1
Draymond Green S 33 11 10 12
Brandin Podziemski S 27 11 4 4
Moses Moody 23 10 9 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 18 8 4 2
Andrew Wiggins S 15 8 1 2
Gary Payton II 11 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Coby White makes 31-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
14%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Coby White CHI
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
8%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
8%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
63%
Jumper
10%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.1 4.2 5.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 21.9 4.2 6.2
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.2 11.3 3.3
4 Coby White CHI 20.6 4.6 6.0
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.6 6.2 3.6
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.2 3.9 6.0
7 Klay Thompson GS 15.4 3.7 2.1
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.4 4.6 2.6
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.8 5.6 4.7
10 Chris Paul GS 11.2 3.4 5.5
11 Draymond Green GS 10.9 8.1 4.7
12 Alex Caruso CHI 10.0 4.3 3.3
13 Andre Drummond CHI 9.5 9.9 0.9
14 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 7.7 4.8 0.9
15 Moses Moody GS 6.9 3.2 0.9
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.0 3.1 1.2
17 Torrey Craig CHI 5.2 3.0 0.9
18 Lester Quinones GS 5.2 2.4 1.0
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.9 1.5 1.1
20 Gui Santos GS 4.7 3.1 0.9
21 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.2 1.7 0.6
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 1.8 0.7
23 Dario Saric GS 3.7 2.2 1.8
24 Kevon Looney GS 3.2 3.3 1.1
25 Dalen Terry CHI 2.6 1.5 1.1
26 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.