NBA games

BOS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
109–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28262629109
DEN30322825115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DEN
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 41 41 14 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 35 24 12 2
Jayson Tatum S 39 15 4 8
Jrue Holiday S 35 12 4 2
Derrick White S 37 7 5 6
Sam Hauser 10 6 0 1
Al Horford 19 2 4 0
Xavier Tillman 13 2 4 1
Payton Pritchard 11 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 32 12 11
Jamal Murray S 37 19 6 8
Aaron Gordon S 34 16 9 1
Peyton Watson 17 11 4 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 11 3 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 9 2 1
Christian Braun 17 7 6 1
Reggie Jackson 11 4 1 2
Zeke Nnaji 8 4 2 0
Justin Holiday 13 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 1-foot layup (Aaron Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
7 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
19%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.2 8.0 6.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.1 5.7 4.0
3 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.0 11.4 9.8
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 22.9 6.9 2.3
5 Jamal Murray DEN 21.6 4.4 6.4
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.5 7.4 2.3
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.8 6.3 3.7
8 Derrick White BOS 13.3 4.2 5.6
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.2 4.2 5.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.0 3.0 2.1
11 Al Horford BOS 9.4 5.8 1.8
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.0 3.3 1.7
13 Reggie Jackson DEN 6.9 1.8 3.1
14 Christian Braun DEN 6.4 3.7 1.3
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.1 3.2 1.2
16 Sam Hauser BOS 5.6 2.9 0.8
17 Xavier Tillman BOS 5.2 3.3 1.3
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.4 1.0
19 Luke Kornet BOS 4.0 3.3 0.7
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 2.7 0.6
21 Jaden Springer BOS 3.6 1.9 0.9
22 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.5 1.0 0.7
23 Julian Strawther DEN 2.7 0.9 0.7
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.6 1.6 0.8
25 DeAndre Jordan DEN 1.8 2.6 0.2
26 Jay Huff DEN 1.6 0.8 0.3
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
28 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.