NBA games

TOR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR25282931113
PHX39282231120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHX
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Trent Jr. S 36 30 3 0
RJ Barrett S 37 23 2 4
Immanuel Quickley S 40 21 9 18
Gradey Dick 31 12 2 0
Chris Boucher 24 11 9 2
Kelly Olynyk S 28 8 4 2
Javon Freeman-Liberty 18 5 3 2
Ochai Agbaji S 24 3 4 1
Jordan Nwora 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 35 3 1
Grayson Allen S 39 26 3 3
Bradley Beal S 33 20 2 8
Bol Bol 16 11 8 0
Royce O'Neale S 32 10 8 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 26 7 14 5
Drew Eubanks 21 6 8 1
Eric Gordon 23 5 2 1
Saben Lee 15 0 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
13%
3 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
11%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
6 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
10%
7 Kelly Olynyk TOR
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
8%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
43%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.3 7.4 5.4
2 Bradley Beal PHX 22.5 4.4 6.0
3 RJ Barrett TOR 21.9 5.9 4.5
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.9 5.4 6.4
5 Grayson Allen PHX 13.6 3.8 3.2
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.5 12.3 4.7
7 Eric Gordon PHX 12.1 2.4 2.1
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.6 3.7 1.7
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.1 5.7 3.5
10 Gradey Dick TOR 10.8 2.9 1.2
11 Kelly Olynyk TOR 9.9 4.6 3.2
12 Thaddeus Young PHX 7.1 4.9 1.8
13 Bol Bol PHX 6.9 4.2 0.9
14 David Roddy PHX 6.0 2.2 1.4
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.9 2.6 1.0
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 5.4 4.5 0.8
17 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 4.8 2.0 0.8
18 Saben Lee PHX 4.5 2.2 1.4
19 Chris Boucher TOR 4.2 3.2 0.5
20 Jordan Nwora TOR 4.0 2.3 1.0
21 Jontay Porter TOR 3.9 2.6 1.1
22 Ish Wainright PHX 3.8 1.6 0.7
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.1 0.9 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.