NBA games

MIA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA36222525108
DAL28263723114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home DAL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Terry Rozier S 40 27 6 11
Duncan Robinson S 30 19 4 2
Jimmy Butler III S 38 14 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 37 14 9 5
Caleb Martin 33 13 3 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 13 6 2
Nikola Jovic S 16 4 2 1
Haywood Highsmith 8 2 2 1
Thomas Bryant 11 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 35 11 11
Kyrie Irving S 36 23 4 4
Dante Exum 17 13 4 5
Daniel Gafford S 21 12 7 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 11 1 1
P.J. Washington S 29 10 8 1
Dereck Lively II 23 4 2 1
Maxi Kleber 22 3 4 1
Josh Green 19 2 2 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 12 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jovic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Nikola Jovic makes layup (Terry Rozier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
11%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
6 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
7 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
8 Josh Green DAL
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
37%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 31.1 10.0 10.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.4 5.5 4.1
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 25.3 6.6 6.7
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 21.3 9.6 4.2
5 Terry Rozier MIA 16.8 4.7 6.2
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.1 3.2 4.3
7 P.J. Washington DAL 12.4 5.3 1.7
8 Caleb Martin MIA 12.2 4.9 2.0
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.6 4.5 2.4
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 8.7 2.8 1.6
11 Josh Green DAL 8.7 3.4 1.8
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.3 5.3 0.8
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.1 6.9 0.9
14 Dante Exum DAL 7.7 1.9 2.9
15 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.3 4.0 1.5
16 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.1 3.0 0.9
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.0 2.9 1.5
18 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.2 2.7 0.9
19 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.4 0.9
20 Jamal Cain MIA 4.6 2.0 0.6
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.2 2.1 0.7
22 Patty Mills MIA 3.1 1.0 0.7
23 Delon Wright MIA 3.0 1.2 1.3
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 3.0 1.4 0.5
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.7 2.7 0.6
26 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.5 2.0 0.7
27 Cole Swider MIA 2.2 0.5 0.5
28 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.