NBA games

MIN @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33272330113
IND23263428111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home IND
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 44 6 3
Rudy Gobert S 40 18 14 0
Naz Reid 26 13 8 2
Jaden McDaniels S 28 11 8 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 28 10 2 2
T.J. Warren 16 7 1 0
Mike Conley S 30 5 5 4
Kyle Anderson S 28 3 3 4
Monte Morris 6 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 24 4 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 23 3 13
Jalen Smith 20 14 2 4
Myles Turner S 21 12 7 1
Aaron Nesmith S 30 8 4 1
Andrew Nembhard S 31 7 6 3
Ben Sheppard 19 6 4 0
T.J. McConnell 12 6 1 1
Jarace Walker 16 5 5 1
Isaiah Jackson 7 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Myles Turner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
14%
3 Myles Turner IND
14%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
5 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
8 Mike Conley MIN
9%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
10 Kyle Anderson MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
18%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
17%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 4.9 4.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 20.1 7.3 3.9
3 Myles Turner IND 17.5 7.8 1.6
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 16.9 4.2 8.9
5 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.6 12.0 1.8
6 Naz Reid MIN 12.5 6.0 1.4
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 3.2 1.8
8 T.J. McConnell IND 11.3 3.4 4.7
9 Mike Conley MIN 11.2 3.4 4.7
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.5 3.4 1.5
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.5 2.9 3.2
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 9.7 2.8 2.5
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.4 5.4 0.9
14 Obi Toppin IND 8.2 3.4 1.2
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.1 3.7 4.3
16 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.3 4.2 0.7
17 Monte Morris MIN 6.2 1.8 2.6
18 Ben Sheppard IND 5.8 1.8 0.7
19 Jarace Walker IND 4.1 2.6 1.3
20 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.0 0.9 1.0
21 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.3 1.3 0.2
22 Kendall Brown IND 2.3 1.0 0.5
23 Luka Garza MIN 2.2 0.7 0.3
24 Josh Minott MIN 1.8 0.9 0.3
25 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 1.5 0.8 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.3 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.