NBA games

BKN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN16412431112
DET26283133118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DET
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 39 31 1 8
Lonnie Walker IV 29 21 4 1
Nic Claxton S 34 15 10 2
Dorian Finney-Smith S 37 13 3 0
Mikal Bridges S 43 13 1 7
Dennis Smith Jr. S 24 9 2 3
Trendon Watford 11 6 2 0
Jalen Wilson 9 2 1 0
Keita Bates-Diop 4 2 2 1
Noah Clowney 10 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey S 39 34 3 2
Cade Cunningham S 38 32 5 11
Ausar Thompson S 43 14 7 3
Jalen Duren S 30 12 14 4
James Wiseman 12 10 3 0
Isaiah Stewart S 32 8 10 0
Simone Fontecchio 23 4 6 1
Evan Fournier 13 2 2 1
Marcus Sasser 6 2 0 2
Malachi Flynn 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:56 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 2-foot dunk (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
16%
2 Cam Thomas BKN
11%
3 Jalen Duren DET
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Dennis Schroder BKN
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.0 4.9 7.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 20.0 3.7 3.9
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.0 4.4 3.8
4 Dennis Schroder BKN 14.5 3.4 4.9
5 Simone Fontecchio DET 14.2 3.6 2.0
6 Jaden Ivey DET 14.1 2.7 3.5
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.1 6.1 1.9
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.7 10.6 2.6
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.4 8.4 2.2
10 Ausar Thompson DET 12.3 6.0 2.3
11 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.1 4.5 1.9
12 Marcus Sasser DET 9.1 2.0 4.2
13 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 8.1 2.7 1.1
14 Evan Fournier DET 7.5 2.3 1.3
15 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 6.1 2.4 3.4
16 Trendon Watford BKN 5.7 2.6 0.7
17 Jalen Wilson BKN 5.6 3.2 1.4
18 James Wiseman DET 5.6 4.7 1.0
19 Stanley Umude DET 4.7 1.9 0.8
20 Keon Johnson BKN 4.0 1.0 0.7
21 Keita Bates-Diop BKN 3.7 1.8 0.7
22 Malachi Flynn DET 3.1 0.9 0.8
23 Noah Clowney BKN 3.0 2.0 0.5
24 Troy Brown Jr. DET 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Taj Gibson DET 1.8 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.