NBA games

SAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
130–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC28443226130
LAL37203528120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAL
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 44 4 4
Malik Monk 32 26 5 8
Domantas Sabonis S 38 16 20 12
Davion Mitchell 18 12 1 1
Harrison Barnes S 15 11 0 0
Trey Lyles 30 7 6 1
Keegan Murray S 31 7 3 3
Keon Ellis 14 5 3 0
Kevin Huerter S 12 2 1 3
Alex Len 10 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 31 5 13
Rui Hachimura S 33 29 2 0
Austin Reaves S 36 18 4 4
Anthony Davis S 34 14 11 3
D'Angelo Russell S 35 10 1 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 24 8 2 1
Taurean Prince 15 6 2 0
Max Christie 11 3 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 13 1 5 0
Maxwell Lewis 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.2 5.7 9.0
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.8 4.8 7.3
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.2 11.9 3.2
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.9 14.4 9.7
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.8 4.2 6.7
6 Malik Monk SAC 19.7 3.9 5.3
7 Austin Reaves LAL 18.0 4.5 6.6
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.8 4.2 1.5
9 Keegan Murray SAC 15.0 5.6 1.9
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 12.1 3.1 1.3
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 12.1 3.6 2.2
12 Taurean Prince LAL 7.3 2.9 1.6
13 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 7.2 1.7 3.6
14 Trey Lyles SAC 7.1 3.9 1.1
15 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.9 1.7 1.5
16 Max Christie LAL 5.5 1.8 1.2
17 Cam Reddish LAL 5.3 1.8 0.9
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 4.0 0.7
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.9 2.4 0.7
20 Alex Len SAC 3.7 2.8 0.7
21 JaVale McGee SAC 3.0 2.4 0.4
22 Harry Giles III LAL 2.9 1.7 0.7
23 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 2.4 1.0 0.6
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.2 1.1 0.9
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.2 0.9 0.6
26 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.1 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.