NBA games

OKC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
128–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC32333231128
POR27303033120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home POR
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 37 3 5
Jalen Williams S 32 31 4 3
Chet Holmgren S 33 21 14 5
Josh Giddey S 32 19 6 7
Gordon Hayward 18 10 2 0
Luguentz Dort S 30 6 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 17 2 3 0
Cason Wallace 17 2 2 0
Kenrich Williams 9 0 3 0
Isaiah Joe 16 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 40 29 3 5
Jerami Grant S 40 20 2 4
Matisse Thybulle 26 16 6 3
Duop Reath S 31 16 5 1
Dalano Banton S 29 13 5 5
Kris Murray S 23 12 3 1
Jabari Walker 19 9 6 2
Rayan Rupert 18 3 1 2
Ashton Hagans 14 2 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes driving layup (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
3 Jerami Grant POR
10%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
6 Jabari Walker POR
8%
7 Dalano Banton POR
7%
8 Josh Giddey OKC
7%
9 Kris Murray POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
15%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 5.6 7.0
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.4 4.2 6.8
3 Jerami Grant POR 22.3 3.6 4.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 22.0 4.4 4.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 18.1 8.9 2.5
6 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.0 3.4 1.5
7 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 5.6 1.6
8 Josh Giddey OKC 10.2 4.7 3.4
9 Jabari Walker POR 9.8 6.8 1.4
10 Duop Reath POR 9.4 4.0 1.1
11 Dalano Banton POR 9.3 3.6 1.9
12 Kris Murray POR 8.2 4.2 2.0
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.4 2.4 0.9
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.4 2.3 1.9
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.3 2.1 1.1
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.3 2.6 1.3
17 Gordon Hayward OKC 5.2 3.0 1.6
18 Ashton Hagans POR 5.2 2.5 2.7
19 Rayan Rupert POR 4.6 2.4 1.1
20 Mike Muscala OKC 4.0 2.0 0.7
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.7 2.1 1.0
22 Bismack Biyombo OKC 3.5 3.7 0.9
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.4 1.8 0.7
24 Moses Brown POR 3.2 4.4 0.6
25 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.1 1.8 0.5
26 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.