NBA games

MIL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
90–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL322623990
GS40381532125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home GS
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 23 7 6
Bobby Portis 24 20 6 1
Damian Lillard S 33 20 1 6
Brook Lopez S 28 9 4 0
Pat Connaughton 22 6 2 3
Jae Crowder S 17 4 6 1
Malik Beasley S 32 4 3 1
AJ Green 13 2 1 1
Patrick Beverley 17 2 4 0
Andre Jackson Jr. 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 29 8 5
Jonathan Kuminga S 25 20 4 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 19 15 6 0
Draymond Green S 25 12 6 6
Klay Thompson 21 10 2 4
Gary Payton II 16 9 3 0
Brandin Podziemski S 26 8 7 3
Chris Paul 20 6 2 9
Moses Moody 21 6 4 1
Kevon Looney 6 4 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 6-foot layup (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
25%
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS
9%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
4 Stephen Curry GS
7%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
7%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
6%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
6%
8 Klay Thompson GS
6%
9 Draymond Green GS
6%
10 Jae Crowder MIL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
9%
Layup
54%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.0 11.4 6.2
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.5 4.9 6.7
3 Stephen Curry GS 21.8 4.1 5.9
4 Bobby Portis MIL 16.4 7.6 2.3
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.2 5.7 3.4
6 Klay Thompson GS 16.2 3.9 2.1
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.6 4.0 2.0
8 Chris Paul GS 11.1 3.5 4.8
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.0 5.4 4.6
10 Malik Beasley MIL 10.8 3.2 1.8
11 Brook Lopez MIL 10.2 5.2 1.8
12 Draymond Green GS 10.2 7.6 4.6
13 Patrick Beverley MIL 6.5 3.4 2.2
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.4 3.7 1.7
15 AJ Green MIL 6.2 1.7 1.1
16 Moses Moody GS 5.9 3.0 0.7
17 Jae Crowder MIL 5.8 3.6 1.5
18 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.3 3.7 0.9
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.3 2.8 1.2
20 Danilo Gallinari MIL 5.0 1.8 1.3
21 Lester Quinones GS 4.7 1.9 1.1
22 Gui Santos GS 3.9 2.7 0.8
23 Dario Saric GS 3.0 2.0 1.7
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.9 1.1 0.4
25 Kevon Looney GS 2.3 2.8 1.1
26 Jerome Robinson GS 2.2 0.8 0.5
27 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.9 0.4
28 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 1.8 0.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.