NBA games

CHI @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
119–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33303026119
UTAH29252934117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home UTAH
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 29 6 7
Coby White S 42 25 6 6
Nikola Vucevic S 31 23 12 2
Alex Caruso S 34 11 3 4
Andre Drummond 17 10 6 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 36 8 2 9
Jevon Carter 20 7 0 1
Julian Phillips 15 6 4 0
Onuralp Bitim 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 32 25 13 0
Collin Sexton S 35 24 4 7
Brice Sensabaugh S 30 15 12 1
Jordan Clarkson 34 15 0 5
Kris Dunn S 29 11 2 5
Omer Yurtseven 16 10 5 3
Talen Horton-Tucker 24 8 3 5
Luka Samanic S 19 7 3 1
Johnny Juzang 20 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DeMar DeRozan · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
20%
2 John Collins UTAH
15%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI
11%
5 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
7 Luka Samanic UTAH
10%
8 Alex Caruso CHI
9%
9 Julian Phillips CHI
0%
10 Onuralp Bitim CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 26.2 4.3 5.3
2 Coby White CHI 22.7 4.5 6.2
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.7 3.3 6.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.3 11.4 3.5
5 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 19.3 3.6 5.7
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 17.6 3.9 6.1
7 John Collins UTAH 16.3 10.5 2.2
8 Andre Drummond CHI 12.0 10.7 1.1
9 Alex Caruso CHI 9.9 4.5 3.8
10 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 7.4 2.5 2.0
11 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.8 2.5 2.5
12 Torrey Craig CHI 5.7 3.1 1.0
13 Jevon Carter CHI 4.9 1.6 1.2
14 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.7 1.7 0.7
15 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 4.3 1.3 0.9
16 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 2.0 0.8
17 Johnny Juzang UTAH 3.7 1.6 1.1
18 Micah Potter UTAH 3.6 2.1 0.6
19 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.4 1.5 0.6
20 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.2 2.3 0.6
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.0 1.7 1.2
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.5 1.4 0.5
23 Kira Lewis Jr. UTAH 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.