NBA games

LAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
122–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC19253642122
HOU27302930116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home HOU
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 28 6 7
Paul George S 39 21 7 2
James Harden S 39 21 5 7
Terance Mann S 27 15 2 0
Norman Powell 29 12 2 0
Mason Plumlee 20 8 11 0
Bones Hyland 10 6 1 1
Daniel Theis 9 6 1 0
Ivica Zubac S 15 3 5 1
Amir Coffey 13 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 42 23 19 14
Jabari Smith Jr. S 29 19 2 1
Cam Whitmore 24 17 2 1
Fred VanVleet S 39 15 4 8
Jalen Green S 32 15 3 2
Dillon Brooks S 38 11 2 3
Aaron Holiday 8 6 1 2
Amen Thompson 18 6 3 2
Jock Landale 6 4 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
3 Jalen Green HOU
13%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
5 Paul George LAC
9%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Terance Mann LAC
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.5 5.8 3.9
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.8 9.4 4.1
3 James Harden LAC 20.6 5.1 7.1
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.9 5.8 4.4
5 Paul George LAC 19.7 4.7 3.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.0 3.9 6.1
7 Norman Powell LAC 13.7 3.3 1.7
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.0 9.5 2.0
9 Cam Whitmore HOU 12.2 4.1 1.5
10 Terance Mann LAC 10.7 4.8 1.9
11 Dillon Brooks HOU 10.5 4.2 1.8
12 Amen Thompson HOU 10.4 8.0 2.1
13 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.3 7.9 1.7
14 Amir Coffey LAC 8.0 2.7 1.6
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.9 1.6 1.5
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.3 4.8 1.1
17 Xavier Moon LAC 6.3 2.6 2.3
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.8 5.0 1.0
19 Bones Hyland LAC 3.8 1.5 1.7
20 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 3.6 1.8 0.7
21 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.5 2.9 0.8
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 3.8 0.9
23 Brandon Boston LAC 3.0 1.1 0.3
24 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.8 1.6 0.6
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.4 0.9 0.4
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.3 2.2 0.8
27 P.J. Tucker LAC 2.2 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.