NBA games

MEM @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
115–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM37192534115
PHI31332916109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home PHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 30 11 1
Jake LaRavia 32 19 13 0
Santi Aldama S 35 17 4 7
Vince Williams Jr. S 37 17 7 9
Luke Kennard S 28 15 2 2
Lamar Stevens 16 8 6 0
GG Jackson 22 6 6 1
John Konchar S 28 3 4 1
Matt Hurt 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. 34 25 4 1
Paul Reed S 24 17 11 3
Cameron Payne S 28 16 5 4
Buddy Hield S 31 15 5 3
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 24 10 3 6
Nicolas Batum S 30 10 6 1
Tobias Harris S 35 8 6 3
KJ Martin 20 7 4 3
Ricky Council IV 9 1 1 0
Mo Bamba 4 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luke Kennard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
19%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
3 Santi Aldama MEM
11%
4 Ziaire Williams MEM
10%
5 Mo Bamba PHI
9%
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
9%
7 Buddy Hield PHI
8%
8 Cameron Payne PHI
8%
9 John Konchar MEM
8%
10 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
43%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.3 5.1 3.4
2 Tobias Harris PHI 16.9 6.8 2.9
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.5 5.7 2.4
4 Buddy Hield PHI 16.2 3.5 5.2
5 GG Jackson MEM 15.7 4.1 1.4
6 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 13.9 5.8 6.1
7 Luke Kennard MEM 12.0 2.5 2.9
8 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.9 4.1 2.0
9 Santi Aldama MEM 10.8 5.4 2.9
10 Lamar Stevens MEM 10.3 5.0 1.1
11 Paul Reed PHI 10.3 7.3 1.4
12 Cameron Payne PHI 9.6 2.1 3.0
13 John Konchar MEM 7.4 5.6 2.3
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 7.3 3.5 1.2
15 KJ Martin PHI 6.7 4.2 1.2
16 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.5 4.6 1.9
17 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.4 2.4 0.5
18 Mo Bamba PHI 4.8 4.4 1.1
19 Matt Hurt MEM 4.7 2.2 0.7
20 Terquavion Smith PHI 2.7 0.5 0.7
21 Yuta Watanabe MEM 2.4 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.