NBA games

CLE @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
101–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE28214012101
ATL31332325112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ATL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jarrett Allen S 37 18 19 3
Isaac Okoro S 35 17 2 2
Darius Garland S 32 15 1 7
Georges Niang S 26 13 3 4
Caris LeVert 36 13 4 7
Craig Porter Jr. 15 13 4 2
Dean Wade S 30 9 4 0
Damian Jones 11 2 2 0
Sam Merrill 18 1 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 34 23 2 6
Saddiq Bey S 41 23 8 0
Dejounte Murray S 39 18 2 9
De'Andre Hunter 26 17 3 2
Clint Capela S 23 8 9 3
Jalen Johnson S 19 7 4 4
Bruno Fernando 25 7 10 2
Trent Forrest 14 6 3 1
Garrison Mathews 17 3 1 0
Vit Krejci 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bogdan Bogdanovic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 9-foot two point shot (Clint Capela assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
15%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
13%
4 Clint Capela ATL
12%
5 Saddiq Bey ATL
11%
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
9%
7 Isaac Okoro CLE
9%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Sam Merrill CLE
7%
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.8 6.6 7.8
2 Darius Garland CLE 19.7 2.8 7.6
3 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.6 10.8 2.8
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.3 9.4 3.4
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.9 3.9 1.7
6 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.4 5.7 1.9
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 14.9 4.1 3.5
8 Isaac Okoro CLE 12.7 3.3 2.6
9 Caris LeVert CLE 11.5 4.9 6.0
10 Clint Capela ATL 11.1 10.4 1.2
11 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.8 5.2 1.0
12 Georges Niang CLE 6.5 2.9 1.1
13 Sam Merrill CLE 6.1 2.0 1.2
14 Dean Wade CLE 5.3 3.2 0.8
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.9 1.8 0.7
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.5 1.8 0.9
17 Emoni Bates CLE 3.3 1.5 0.8
18 Kobe Bufkin ATL 3.0 1.4 1.1
19 Trent Forrest ATL 2.8 1.3 1.9
20 Pete Nance CLE 2.6 1.4 0.6
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.4 1.5 0.5
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.2 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.