NBA games

ORL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
119–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL23303135119
WSH34311826109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home WSH
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 39 28 5 2
Paolo Banchero S 39 25 6 10
Jalen Suggs S 32 19 6 4
Moritz Wagner 21 16 6 0
Cole Anthony 25 11 7 0
Anthony Black S 22 8 1 2
Goga Bitadze S 25 6 8 2
Markelle Fultz 19 6 2 1
Joe Ingles 14 0 1 0
Caleb Houstan 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole 32 26 4 5
Kyle Kuzma S 31 25 5 4
Deni Avdija S 36 14 7 3
Richaun Holmes 25 12 5 2
Corey Kispert S 19 8 1 2
Johnny Davis 18 8 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 7 4 1
Tyus Jones S 27 7 3 6
Landry Shamet 16 2 1 2
Eugene Omoruyi 7 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
17%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
3 Deni Avdija WSH
15%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
6 Tyus Jones WSH
9%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
10 Jordan Poole WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
41%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.8 6.9 6.2
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.1 6.7 3.9
3 Franz Wagner ORL 21.6 5.6 4.3
4 Deni Avdija WSH 20.7 8.7 3.7
5 Jordan Poole WSH 20.3 3.8 4.4
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.7 3.8 3.5
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.5 6.9 1.7
8 Corey Kispert WSH 13.6 3.6 2.8
9 Cole Anthony ORL 12.6 4.7 2.6
10 Tyus Jones WSH 11.9 2.6 8.4
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.3 5.8 1.0
12 Markelle Fultz ORL 10.5 4.6 2.3
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 8.4 3.6 1.6
14 Anthony Black ORL 6.6 2.9 1.2
15 Landry Shamet WSH 6.6 1.9 1.0
16 Joe Ingles ORL 6.2 1.9 2.8
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.4 2.2 0.8
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.7 3.4 0.9
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 4.4 3.3 0.6
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.3 2.7 1.0
21 Chuma Okeke ORL 4.0 2.0 0.8
22 Admiral Schofield ORL 4.0 2.0 0.9
23 R.J. Hampton WSH 3.5 1.3 1.3
24 Johnny Davis WSH 3.4 1.9 0.7
25 Jules Bernard WSH 1.8 0.8 0.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.