NBA games

PHX @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
117–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX2837251215117
DEN321831215107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DEN
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 44 35 8 5
Grayson Allen S 41 28 5 4
Bradley Beal S 36 16 6 6
Drew Eubanks 23 10 8 0
Royce O'Neale S 39 8 5 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 7 12 6
Saben Lee 13 4 3 2
Eric Gordon 22 4 1 2
David Roddy 5 3 0 0
Bol Bol 13 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 42 28 7 9
Nikola Jokic S 44 25 16 5
Michael Porter Jr. S 40 20 7 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 11 5 3
Aaron Gordon S 34 7 3 3
Christian Braun 19 7 4 1
Peyton Watson 23 4 4 4
Reggie Jackson 16 3 2 0
Zeke Nnaji 9 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grayson Allen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Grayson Allen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Christian Braun DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.1 7.4 5.5
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.8 13.0 10.0
3 Bradley Beal PHX 21.9 4.2 5.7
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.7 7.7 2.9
5 Jamal Murray DEN 20.3 4.5 6.6
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.8 6.9 3.8
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.2 11.0 4.1
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.2 5.7 3.0
9 Grayson Allen PHX 11.2 3.6 3.7
10 Eric Gordon PHX 11.0 2.3 1.9
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.5 2.7 1.9
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 7.3 1.9 3.4
13 Thaddeus Young PHX 6.8 4.8 1.8
14 Bol Bol PHX 6.6 4.1 0.8
15 Christian Braun DEN 6.2 3.8 1.3
16 David Roddy PHX 6.1 2.7 1.4
17 Peyton Watson DEN 5.9 3.4 1.1
18 Justin Holiday DEN 5.9 1.8 1.3
19 Drew Eubanks PHX 4.7 3.9 0.7
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 3.0 0.7
21 Saben Lee PHX 3.5 1.8 1.0
22 Julian Strawther DEN 3.1 1.1 0.8
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.2 2.9 0.3
24 Jay Huff DEN 1.9 0.9 0.4
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 1.7 0.6 0.6
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.6 1.4 0.3
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.