NBA games

IND @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
137–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND35393231137
DAL32381832120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DAL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 28 20 4 2
Bennedict Mathurin 25 19 0 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 19 6 11
Obi Toppin 17 14 2 0
Pascal Siakam S 32 13 13 6
T.J. McConnell 18 13 2 7
Ben Sheppard 22 12 7 0
Jalen Smith 18 11 5 1
Andrew Nembhard S 25 10 3 5
Aaron Nesmith S 22 6 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 43 39 10 11
Kyrie Irving S 36 23 7 3
P.J. Washington S 37 20 7 3
Daniel Gafford 21 16 10 2
Josh Green S 26 6 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 13 6 1 1
Dante Exum 16 4 2 2
A.J. Lawson 2 2 0 0
Jaden Hardy 2 2 0 0
Derrick Jones Jr. 12 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
14%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Myles Turner IND
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Josh Green DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
17%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 32.1 9.5 10.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.8 5.3 4.4
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.4 7.1 3.7
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.0 4.1 9.7
5 Myles Turner IND 18.4 7.8 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.9 4.8 2.6
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.5 3.8 1.9
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.3 5.0 1.7
9 T.J. McConnell IND 11.3 3.4 5.5
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.9 2.9 3.4
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 10.3 3.0 1.8
12 Josh Green DAL 10.1 3.7 2.1
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.7 6.5 1.2
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.5 7.5 1.0
15 Jalen Smith IND 8.4 5.4 1.1
16 Dante Exum DAL 8.4 2.2 3.3
17 Obi Toppin IND 8.1 3.4 1.4
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 7.4 4.3 1.9
19 Isaiah Jackson IND 6.7 4.6 0.9
20 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 6.3 2.9 1.1
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.4 1.1 0.7
22 Ben Sheppard IND 4.7 1.2 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 4.0 2.4 1.3
24 A.J. Lawson DAL 2.7 1.0 0.4
25 Oscar Tshiebwe IND 2.6 1.6 0.4
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.4 0.5
27 Kendall Brown IND 2.4 1.4 0.7
28 Dwight Powell DAL 2.0 2.6 0.7
29 James Johnson IND 1.6 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.