NBA games

SA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
101–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA21322424101
HOU26213334114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home HOU
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 40 22 8 3
Malaki Branham 26 20 1 2
Keldon Johnson 34 18 6 2
Jeremy Sochan S 34 15 8 3
Victor Wembanyama S 31 10 11 3
Zach Collins 18 6 6 1
Cedi Osman 15 6 4 0
Tre Jones S 21 4 4 5
Blake Wesley 12 0 0 5
Julian Champagnie S 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 45 16 3
Jalen Green S 39 23 2 3
Fred VanVleet S 38 21 4 10
Cam Whitmore 20 19 8 1
Jock Landale 11 2 8 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 25 2 3 1
Amen Thompson 19 2 6 1
Dillon Brooks S 36 0 3 2
Jeff Green 6 0 1 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 7-foot two point shot (Tre Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
7 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
8 Tre Jones SA
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
23%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 26.3 11.2 4.8
2 Devin Vassell SA 23.7 5.1 5.9
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.1 8.5 4.5
4 Jalen Green HOU 20.8 5.7 4.3
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.0 3.7 6.3
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.1 9.8 2.2
7 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 3.5 2.4
8 Cam Whitmore HOU 13.0 3.8 1.5
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.4 6.2 1.9
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.2 4.1 2.0
11 Amen Thompson HOU 11.8 8.4 2.6
12 Malaki Branham SA 10.8 2.6 2.2
13 Tre Jones SA 10.7 3.7 5.4
14 Zach Collins SA 9.1 4.2 2.6
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.5 1.8 1.9
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.4 2.6 1.4
17 Blake Wesley SA 6.1 1.9 2.5
18 Julian Champagnie SA 5.4 3.3 1.4
19 Dominick Barlow SA 5.4 4.7 1.2
20 Cedi Osman SA 5.0 2.1 1.7
21 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.6 2.8 0.8
22 Jock Landale HOU 3.4 3.2 1.1
23 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.9 1.5 0.5
24 Nate Williams HOU 2.7 0.9 0.5
25 Devonte' Graham SA 2.6 1.1 0.8
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.6 2.2 0.8
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.