NBA games

NO @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
13998
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO42263833139
TOR2817312298

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home TOR
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III 29 34 6 1
Herbert Jones S 25 17 2 3
Zion Williamson S 26 16 8 9
Brandon Ingram S 25 12 3 6
Naji Marshall 20 11 7 4
CJ McCollum S 23 11 4 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 20 10 10 1
Larry Nance Jr. 16 6 6 2
Matt Ryan 7 6 2 1
Jose Alvarado 24 5 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 33 17 7 7
Gary Trent Jr. S 29 16 3 1
Kelly Olynyk S 28 15 6 7
RJ Barrett S 32 15 6 1
Javon Freeman-Liberty 18 13 3 1
Jordan Nwora 20 9 6 1
Jontay Porter 16 5 3 2
Ochai Agbaji S 16 3 3 0
Jahmi'us Ramsey 5 2 2 1
Gradey Dick 27 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
6 Herbert Jones NO
11%
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
10%
8 CJ McCollum NO
9%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
10 Trey Murphy III NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 25.5 5.8 6.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.4 6.4 6.9
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.2 5.6 5.1
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.6 4.7 6.1
5 CJ McCollum NO 18.4 4.5 3.7
6 Trey Murphy III NO 15.1 4.9 2.4
7 Herbert Jones NO 14.2 4.0 2.6
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 11.3 9.3 1.8
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.2 3.2 1.9
10 Gradey Dick TOR 9.9 2.7 1.4
11 Kelly Olynyk TOR 9.6 4.0 3.3
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.7 2.8 2.5
13 Naji Marshall NO 6.0 3.3 2.2
14 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.9 5.0 2.2
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.7 2.3 1.1
16 Matt Ryan NO 5.2 1.9 0.9
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 1.7 0.8
18 Chris Boucher TOR 4.1 3.2 0.5
19 Jontay Porter TOR 4.0 2.5 1.2
20 Jordan Nwora TOR 3.5 1.8 0.9
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 1.5 0.7
22 Javon Freeman-Liberty TOR 3.2 1.4 0.6
23 D.J. Carton TOR 3.2 1.0 0.8
24 Mouhamadou Gueye TOR 2.7 2.5 0.4
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.1 2.0 0.7
26 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.1 0.8 0.6
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.