NO @ TOR
NBA
Scotiabank Arena
·Final
139–98
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 42 | 26 | 38 | 33 | 139 |
| TOR | 28 | 17 | 31 | 22 | 98 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
TOR
75%
25%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 29 | 34 | 6 | 1 |
| Herbert Jones S | 25 | 17 | 2 | 3 |
| Zion Williamson S | 26 | 16 | 8 | 9 |
| Brandon Ingram S | 25 | 12 | 3 | 6 |
| Naji Marshall | 20 | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| CJ McCollum S | 23 | 11 | 4 | 4 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 20 | 10 | 10 | 1 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 16 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | 24 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Brandon Ingram ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
14%
2
Brandon Ingram
NO
13%
3
RJ Barrett
TOR
11%
4
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
11%
5
Immanuel Quickley
TOR
11%
6
Herbert Jones
NO
11%
7
Gary Trent Jr.
TOR
10%
8
CJ McCollum
NO
9%
9
Ochai Agbaji
TOR
9%
10
Trey Murphy III
NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
38%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 25.5 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| 2 | Zion Williamson | NO | 24.4 | 6.4 | 6.9 |
| 3 | RJ Barrett | TOR | 22.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| 4 | Immanuel Quickley | TOR | 18.6 | 4.7 | 6.1 |
| 5 | CJ McCollum | NO | 18.4 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| 6 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 15.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| 7 | Herbert Jones | NO | 14.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 8 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 11.3 | 9.3 | 1.8 |
| 9 | Gary Trent Jr. | TOR | 11.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 10 | Gradey Dick | TOR | 9.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 11 | Kelly Olynyk | TOR | 9.6 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| 12 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 7.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| 13 | Naji Marshall | NO | 6.0 | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| 14 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 5.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 |
| 15 | Ochai Agbaji | TOR | 5.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 16 | Matt Ryan | NO | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 17 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 18 | Chris Boucher | TOR | 4.1 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 19 | Jontay Porter | TOR | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 20 | Jordan Nwora | TOR | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 21 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Javon Freeman-Liberty | TOR | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 23 | D.J. Carton | TOR | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 24 | Mouhamadou Gueye | TOR | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.4 |
| 25 | Cody Zeller | NO | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 26 | Jalen McDaniels | TOR | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 27 | Garrett Temple | TOR | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.