NBA games

ATL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL33282233116
NY15352822100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NY
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 38 26 9 7
De'Andre Hunter 25 22 3 0
Dejounte Murray S 37 21 9 6
Saddiq Bey S 36 17 9 2
Clint Capela S 25 13 9 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 30 5 1 4
Trent Forrest 11 5 1 4
Bruno Fernando 23 4 7 0
Garrison Mathews 14 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 39 21 4 6
Bojan Bogdanovic 31 19 3 0
Precious Achiuwa S 24 15 6 2
Josh Hart S 43 14 8 6
Miles McBride S 46 11 2 9
Alec Burks 12 11 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 20 5 6 2
Jericho Sims 26 4 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
2 Donte DiVincenzo NY
12%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Saddiq Bey ATL
10%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Precious Achiuwa NY
9%
9 Isaiah Hartenstein NY
9%
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
40%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.1 3.5 7.3
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.7 6.2 7.8
3 Donte DiVincenzo NY 21.8 4.4 3.8
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.2 9.6 3.3
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.5 4.0 1.7
6 Bojan Bogdanovic NY 15.9 3.5 2.1
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 15.5 5.6 1.8
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 14.8 4.4 3.4
9 Josh Hart NY 14.6 10.1 6.4
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 13.8 10.5 1.8
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 10.6 9.2 3.3
12 Miles McBride NY 10.2 2.5 2.2
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.8 9.7 1.1
14 Alec Burks NY 9.0 2.5 1.5
15 Bruno Fernando ATL 6.0 4.4 0.9
16 Jericho Sims NY 6.0 5.9 1.4
17 Shake Milton NY 4.0 2.0 1.1
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.4 1.4 0.6
19 Kobe Bufkin ATL 3.4 1.5 1.3
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.5 1.4 0.4
21 Jacob Toppin NY 2.4 1.2 0.4
22 Trent Forrest ATL 2.1 1.0 1.5
23 Charlie Brown Jr. NY 1.8 0.7 0.5
24 Dylan Windler ATL 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.