NBA games

DET @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
110–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET26342822110
MIA36253225118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home MIA
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 23 4 8
Simone Fontecchio 29 22 4 2
Jaden Ivey S 29 16 2 4
Jalen Duren S 32 14 10 3
Isaiah Stewart S 36 13 6 2
Ausar Thompson S 34 9 6 2
Evan Fournier 15 7 2 1
James Wiseman 16 6 7 1
Marcus Sasser 14 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 26 6 8
Bam Adebayo S 35 18 7 1
Duncan Robinson S 36 18 3 4
Terry Rozier S 32 17 2 7
Caleb Martin 28 15 6 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 27 11 6 2
Nikola Jovic S 21 8 4 2
Haywood Highsmith 11 3 3 1
Orlando Robinson 8 2 5 1
Thomas Bryant 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Duren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
3 Terry Rozier MIA
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
23%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 25.7 6.8 6.3
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.9 4.7 7.1
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.7 9.4 4.5
4 Terry Rozier MIA 17.2 4.7 5.8
5 Jaden Ivey DET 15.7 2.7 3.6
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 14.1 3.0 3.8
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.6 11.2 2.6
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.0 6.1 1.9
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.5 4.6 2.5
10 Caleb Martin MIA 12.2 4.5 1.9
11 Simone Fontecchio DET 12.0 3.8 2.1
12 Ausar Thompson DET 11.8 5.8 2.3
13 Marcus Sasser DET 8.9 1.9 4.2
14 Evan Fournier DET 7.5 2.2 1.4
15 Quentin Grimes DET 7.2 2.8 1.3
16 Kevin Love MIA 7.2 5.7 1.5
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 5.8 2.8 0.8
18 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.5 2.6 1.4
19 James Wiseman DET 5.4 4.5 0.9
20 Troy Brown Jr. DET 3.5 1.8 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.5 1.9 0.7
22 Malachi Flynn DET 3.1 0.9 0.8
23 Delon Wright MIA 3.1 1.3 1.3
24 Orlando Robinson MIA 2.1 1.5 0.6
25 Cole Swider MIA 2.0 0.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.