NBA games

BOS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
104–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS33223217104
CLE25202634105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CLE
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 38 26 13 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 32 24 9 3
Jaylen Brown S 37 21 3 4
Jrue Holiday S 36 12 4 5
Al Horford 20 7 5 0
Sam Hauser 14 5 5 1
Luke Kornet 16 4 3 1
Derrick White S 35 3 6 7
Payton Pritchard 13 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dean Wade 21 23 8 1
Jarrett Allen S 35 21 12 2
Darius Garland S 36 16 1 11
Isaac Okoro S 31 16 4 1
Caris LeVert 30 10 4 5
Georges Niang 27 9 1 1
Sam Merrill S 30 6 4 1
Evan Mobley S 23 4 6 4
Craig Porter Jr. 6 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
15%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
6 Isaac Okoro CLE
8%
7 Derrick White BOS
8%
8 Darius Garland CLE
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.7 7.8 6.1
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.7 6.0 4.0
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 21.6 7.0 2.1
4 Darius Garland CLE 18.8 2.9 7.0
5 Jarrett Allen CLE 18.1 9.6 2.7
6 Evan Mobley CLE 16.8 10.0 3.3
7 Derrick White BOS 15.7 4.3 5.5
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.7 4.2 5.4
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.6 2.8 2.5
10 Caris LeVert CLE 10.1 4.4 5.4
11 Al Horford BOS 9.6 5.9 1.9
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.3 3.1 1.7
13 Georges Niang CLE 6.3 2.7 1.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 5.9 3.0 0.8
15 Sam Merrill CLE 5.8 1.5 1.2
16 Jaden Springer BOS 4.4 2.2 1.1
17 Dean Wade CLE 4.3 2.4 0.7
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.3 0.9
19 Luke Kornet BOS 3.7 3.8 0.7
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.4 1.6 1.0
21 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.3 1.9 1.0
22 Emoni Bates CLE 3.2 1.3 0.7
23 Pete Nance CLE 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Damian Jones CLE 2.0 1.3 0.5
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.1 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.