NBA games

ORL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
101–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL25203026101
CHA2023232389

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 33 22 5 3
Cole Anthony 23 14 3 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 12 9 1
Jonathan Isaac 18 11 6 0
Moritz Wagner 18 11 4 2
Anthony Black 28 10 5 1
Gary Harris S 22 9 0 0
Franz Wagner S 30 8 3 2
Jalen Suggs S 20 4 4 3
Caleb Houstan 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vasilije Micic S 29 21 5 4
Brandon Miller S 38 18 5 3
Tre Mann S 34 18 6 4
Davis Bertans 26 14 6 1
Grant Williams 33 9 2 3
Miles Bridges S 36 7 3 3
Nick Richards S 27 2 4 0
Bryce McGowens 18 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Vasilije Micic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:06 Q1
"Vasilije Micic makes 8-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Grant Williams CHA
10%
4 Nick Richards CHA
9%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
6 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
7 Tre Mann CHA
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
23%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.7 7.0 6.1
2 Franz Wagner ORL 22.3 5.6 4.9
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.5 8.2 3.8
4 Brandon Miller CHA 18.4 4.8 3.2
5 Grant Williams CHA 14.7 5.6 2.5
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.7 3.3 3.5
7 Nick Richards CHA 12.5 8.3 1.1
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.4 6.1 1.7
9 Tre Mann CHA 12.1 4.6 4.4
10 Cole Anthony ORL 10.2 4.2 2.7
11 Vasilije Micic CHA 10.0 2.1 5.3
12 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.7 4.7 1.1
13 Gary Harris ORL 8.2 2.3 1.7
14 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 5.0 0.9
15 Davis Bertans CHA 5.6 1.4 0.7
16 Bryce McGowens CHA 5.1 2.3 0.9
17 Joe Ingles ORL 4.9 1.5 2.4
18 Anthony Black ORL 4.5 2.1 1.1
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.4 1.8 0.7
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.3 0.7 1.1
21 Goga Bitadze ORL 2.6 2.2 0.7
22 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.4 0.9 0.5
23 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.4 1.2 0.6
24 JT Thor CHA 2.4 1.6 0.5
25 Marques Bolden CHA 2.2 2.1 0.5
26 Aleksej Pokusevski CHA 1.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.