NBA games

OKC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC25182932104
LAL25273727116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home LAL
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 20 7 4
Chet Holmgren S 28 15 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 24 15 2 2
Josh Giddey S 29 13 5 4
Aaron Wiggins 16 12 1 1
Cason Wallace 22 7 4 1
Jalen Williams S 26 7 2 3
Mike Muscala 11 5 3 0
Olivier Sarr 4 3 0 0
Lindy Waters III 5 3 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 34 26 6 3
Anthony Davis S 30 24 12 4
LeBron James S 31 19 11 8
Austin Reaves S 29 16 6 7
Taurean Prince 22 14 6 1
Rui Hachimura S 22 7 1 1
Jaxson Hayes 18 4 6 2
Max Christie 5 3 1 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 24 2 2 3
Jalen Hood-Schifino 5 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 3-foot two point shot (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
6 LeBron James LAL
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL
8%
9 Josh Giddey OKC
8%
10 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
21%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.2 7.1
2 LeBron James LAL 26.3 5.2 9.1
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.2 12.2 3.3
4 Jalen Williams OKC 24.0 4.7 5.6
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.1 4.2 6.9
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.3 8.9 3.0
7 Austin Reaves LAL 18.2 4.4 6.8
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 15.9 4.6 1.5
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.3 3.6 1.6
10 Josh Giddey OKC 9.7 4.7 3.3
11 Spencer Dinwiddie LAL 8.1 1.7 3.9
12 Taurean Prince LAL 7.7 2.9 1.7
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.0 2.4 1.3
14 Gordon Hayward OKC 6.4 3.5 1.9
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.4 2.8 1.0
16 Cason Wallace OKC 6.4 2.6 1.3
17 Cam Reddish LAL 6.1 2.1 1.1
18 Max Christie LAL 5.4 2.3 1.1
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.1 4.4 0.8
20 Bismack Biyombo OKC 4.4 4.7 1.1
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 3.9 2.3 1.2
22 Mike Muscala OKC 3.2 1.7 0.6
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 2.5 1.2 0.6
24 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.3 1.8 0.4
25 Harry Giles III LAL 1.8 1.2 0.5
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.4 0.6 0.4
27 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.