NBA games

CHI @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
113–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI22272836113
SAC36203518109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home SAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 44 37 5 7
DeMar DeRozan S 38 33 0 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 39 20 2 5
Nikola Vucevic S 32 10 13 2
Julian Phillips 14 6 1 0
Andre Drummond 16 4 6 0
Alex Caruso S 34 2 3 7
Onuralp Bitim 13 1 1 1
Jevon Carter 11 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 39 20 1 10
Domantas Sabonis S 32 18 21 4
Kevin Huerter S 23 12 3 2
Malik Monk 30 11 4 6
Keegan Murray S 39 11 6 4
Harrison Barnes S 25 10 1 1
Trey Lyles 21 9 3 1
Chris Duarte 13 8 5 0
Davion Mitchell 9 6 3 1
Alex Len 10 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ayo Dosunmu · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Ayo Dosunmu makes driving layup (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
16%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI 25.9 4.5 5.4
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.4 5.1 7.4
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.3 16.7 9.6
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.1 10.2 3.2
5 Coby White CHI 21.8 4.5 6.2
6 Malik Monk SAC 21.2 4.2 5.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.4 3.8 5.1
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.4 5.0 1.8
9 Andre Drummond CHI 12.2 10.6 1.1
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 11.8 3.3 2.0
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 3.2 1.2
12 Alex Caruso CHI 9.9 4.5 3.4
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.7 3.7 1.0
14 Davion Mitchell SAC 5.9 1.2 1.4
15 Torrey Craig CHI 5.5 3.0 0.9
16 Jevon Carter CHI 4.2 1.2 1.0
17 Onuralp Bitim CHI 4.0 1.3 0.6
18 Chris Duarte SAC 3.9 1.9 0.7
19 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.7 1.4
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.1 1.5 0.7
21 Alex Len SAC 2.8 1.9 0.7
22 JaVale McGee SAC 2.7 2.2 0.4
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.6 1.4 0.6
24 Keon Ellis SAC 2.3 1.2 1.1
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 1.9 0.9 0.5
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.